Tuesday, May 13, 2008

The big trade revisited

It's kind of hard to believe that less than three months separate us from the date on which Danny Ferry blew up half the Cavaliers roster. It was Feb. 21, the NBA trade deadline, and Ferry was under pressure to improve a roster that had likely topped out its potential. Good, but not great.

After the trade, fans expected to see a rejuvenated Cavs club free of the masonry work of Larry Hughes and Donyell Marshall, free of the space cadet antics of Drew Gooden, free of having a roster rounded out with miscellaneous, non-contributing flotsam like Shannon Brown and Cedric Simmons.

It didn't quite work out that way for the remainder of the regular season. The rebuilt Cavs, with Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace and Joe Smith on board, sputtered to the finish line with a .500 post-trade record that had fans ready to write this team off as first-round dog meat in the playoffs, which would have meant another trip back to the ol' drawing board for Ferry.

But even though the Cavs made postseason life a lot harder on themselves by winning a mere 45 games during the just-completed regular season, trades like February's aren't made with an eye toward the regular season. They're made to pay off in the playoffs.

Results were inconclusive in the Washington series. Wallace and Smith had their moments, but then again, so did Gooden and Hughes in previous playoff runs. Szczerbiak was sterling in the Game 2 blowout, but didn't do a whole heck of a lot the rest of the series. West proved himself to be a competent ball handler and he clinched Game 4 with the biggest shot of his career so far, but that didn't mean anyone was going to confuse him with Chris Paul or Tony Parker.

The Cavs didn't need many big contributions from their new guys against Washington, mainly because the Wizards couldn't have solved LeBron James with a slide rule, Stephen Hawking's brain or any other study aid.

The Wizards were purely and simply incapable of stopping LeBron long enough for it to make a difference in the series. It was, is, and probably will continue to be that way for as long as LeBron repeatedly meets Gilbert Arenas and Co. in the postseason.

Against Boston, different story. And it's under these pressure cooker circumstances that we are starting to see what Ferry likely envisioned when he made the trade.

Boston's defense has vexed LeBron more than any defense he's yet faced in postseason play, aside from the clamp job done by the Spurs in last year's Finals, which was aided by LeBron's fatigue from almost singlehandedly carrying the Cavs past the Pistons in the conference finals.

In four games, LeBron has topped out at 21 points in Games 2, 3 and 4, on 25, 31 and 35 percent shooting, respectively. For most players, three 21-point efforts would be fantastic. For LeBron, it's a stunning drop in production. Only in Game 4's 88-77 victory did he look anywhere close to in control of his game, attacking the rim and not settling for outside jumpers as he did in the first three games.

LeBron hasn't been neutralized -- that might be nearly impossible for an opposing defense to accomplish -- but the Celtics' staunch defense diluted his effect on particularly the first three games of the series. Even in Game 4, he was a mere 7-for-20 from the floor.

Yet the Cavs are right back in the series with a chance to pull ahead if they can finally get the Celtics to trip up at home on Wednesday night. In previous years, a confounded LeBron likely meant a Cavs loss. But this edition of the Cavs is showing things we didn't see at the end of the regular season. This Cavs team can find ways around a defense that is stuffing LeBron, thanks in no small measure to the new guys, who have given this team different ways to produce points at the offensive end, and stops at the defensive end.

Maybe a second star player to pair with LeBron is what is truly standing between the Cavs and a playoff run that doesn't seem like so much of an uphill battle. But there is something to be said for a battalion of serviceable role players surrounding your superstar.

Keep in mind that a year ago at this time, Mike Brown was relying on Sasha Pavlovic, Eric Snow and Hughes to shoulder the bulk of backcourt minutes. This year, it's West, Szczerbiak and Daniel Gibson, who didn't really appear on the radar in a big way until the Eastern Conference Finals a year ago.

Pavlovic plays good defense sometimes. He shoots the ball well sometimes. He drives to the hoop and gets blocked sometimes. And now, though he is fully recovered from an ankle sprain, he's only playing sometimes.

Snow's career was close to being over a year ago. Now it appears a lingering knee injury will indeed end his career. Hughes' shooting woes have been documented ad nauseum. If he wasn't playing defense at a high level, he wasn't contributing.

Contrast that with the new members of the current trio. While West hasn't been totally consistent (He flat-out stunk in the first two games in Boston, but what Cav didn't?), he already has a game-winning shot to his credit in the playoffs, and he bounced back from his Boston woes with 21 points in Game 3. He also has an ability to penetrate and create inside, not the strong suit of any previous Cavs point guard in the LeBron Era.

Szczerbiak has had games of 13, 13, 14 and 16 against Boston thus far, including seven three-pointers. It's not great production, but it's consistent, and a far cry from Hughes or Pavlovic following up a 14-point game with a four-point game on 2-for-14 shooting.

The big men, Wallace and Smith, haven't put up great numbers on most nights, but as seasoned veterans, they have shown they know how to step up their games in crunch time. Smith, in particular, had a marvelous stretch in Games 3 and 4, knocking down clutch jumpers and grabbing big rebounds, including a board that helped to seal Game 4.

The best part about the quartet Ferry acquired? They all have a place on the floor in the fourth quarter. Certainly, Brown has to be wary of opposing teams resorting to "Hack-a-Ben" in an attempt to send the historically-putrid free throw shooter to the line late in games, but unlike Gooden, Hughes or Marshall, Wallace doesn't disappear late in games. When healthy, he can still contribute with some degree of defense and rebounding, meaning Brown can at least have him as an option.

In previous years, Brown had to ride it out with LeBron, Gibson, Anderson Varejao, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and maybe one or two other hot hands as the small band he count count on in the clutch. Now, Brown can go nine or 10 deep on the bench with late-game options.

Say what you will about Brown's competency as a late-game lineup manager, but it makes a coach's job a lot easier when he knows he has multiple lineup options available at winning time. It has certainly helped the Cavs get back into the series.

The Cavs are still fighting an uphill battle to go deep into this postseason. That course was set long before the playoffs began. But the longer the Cavs endure in the playoffs, and the more intense the competition gets, the better Ferry's late-season, trade-deadline gamble looks.

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Assorted thoughts prior to Game 3

Game 3 of the Celtics-Cavaliers series will tip at just after 8 p.m. tonight. Obviously, this game and Monday's game are must-wins for the Cavs to even have a shot. Go down 3-0 or 3-1, and the offseason will arrive on Cleveland's doorstep.

I'm torn, to be honest. On one hand, this series isn't over. On the other hand, getting unceremoniously dropped by the Celtics in four or five games would send a message to Danny Ferry and Cavs management that they, in no uncertain terms, have to be very proactive in improving the team this summer.

Of course my first choice is for the Cavs to do what they did against the Pistons a year ago and win four straight, gaining an avalanche of momentum in the process. But I also know that this Celtics team is probably better than the Pistons have ever been at any point during the past five years, their 2004 title included. That's really saying something. Boston has star power that is unmatched in the NBA and is capable of dominating games at both ends of the floor.

So the stark reality is that the Cavs, no matter how good they play the rest of the way, are going to have an extremely difficult time winning four of the next five from Boston. Even if they do, the winner of the Detroit-Orlando series awaits in the East finals. If the Cavs somehow won that series, a titan of the West would await in the NBA Finals.

In short, the Cavs ain't winning a title this year. Generally, teams that win 45 regular season games don't win titles. Which brings me to my first point:

1. Want to win a title? Win more games between November and April.

The common opinion among fans and media is that the NBA regular season is meaningless. Sixteen of 30 teams qualify for the playoffs, which can drag on for more than two months, so it would appear that the five and one-half month, 82-game march called the regular season is nothing more than a wintertime diversion meant to line the league's pockets with dough.

The part about lining the league's pockets is true. But the idea that good teams can just develop a "wake me when the playoffs start" mentality is entirely false. I'd venture to say home advantage is more important in the NBA than in any other league.

I can't put my finger on an overarching reason why, but the knowledge that you're going to play the first two games of a series at home, in front of a loud home crowd, shooting at rims that you've been shooting at all season, seems to put the team with homecourt advantage on firmer footing than the team that has to go into a hostile road arena and try to win one of the first two.

The home teams won the first 10 games of the second round, so there must be some validity to that argument.

In a nutshell, the Cavs, for a variety of reasons, some of which were beyond their control as an organization, didn't win enough games during the regular season to penetrate deep into the playoffs. To beat Boston without homecourt advantage, then try to beat Detroit or Orlando without homecourt if they should somehow squeak past the Celtics, it all seems like too much to ask.

But if we're talking about a Cavs team with homecourt advantage against the likes of the Celtics, Pistons and Magic, suddenly it doesn't seem like as daunting of a task.

It would seem that if a team wants to realistically have a shot to win a title, it had better win between 55 and 60 games during the regular season, minimum. With the contracts Danny Ferry will have to trade this summer, it would seem like the Cavs will finally have a shot to win 55 or 60 games next year with the right roster moves this summer.

2. The Knicks (yes, the Knicks) are making me nervous.

In speaking of roster moves this summer, the New York Knicks could be a team to watch, and that concerns me.

No, it doesn't have anything to do with maneuvering to capture LeBron in two years. It has everything to do with the desperate Knicks trying to emulate the Celtics' stunning turnaround.

Saturday, the Knicks reportedly hired Mike D'Antoni as their new coach. The Suns cut him loose in what I think will end up being a very short-sighted move in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. D'Antoni will take his high-flying offense act to New York in an attempt to revive the flatlining Knicks.

That alone doesn't scare me. But the ramifications for the summer do.

The Knicks, like the Cavs, will have a small fortune in expiring deals to trade this summer. They still have plenty of heavy contracts weighing them down for the next couple of years, but the deals of Stephon Marbury ($19 million this year), Jerome James (nearly $6 million) and Malik Rose ($7 million) could all potentially enter their final years this summer, making them all-too-valuable expiring contracts the Knicks can use in trades.

Normally, it might be the safest and smartest route for a Nowheresville franchise like the Knicks to simply let those contracts come off the books after next season (or this season -- Marbury has an early termination option), regain some financial flexibility and attempt to rebuild through the draft. But the Knicks just watched the arch-rival Celtics acquire Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, subsequently performing the biggest one-season turnaround in league history, going from a 24-win dreg to a 66-win title favorite in one year.

Knicks management might be looking at the Celtics and figuring "That could be us next year." The fact that they've reportedly brought in D'Antoni and his exciting brand of basketball seems to indicate that they're not expecting to sit around and wait for LeBron or anybody else to land in their lap.

How does this affect the Cavs? The Knicks and Cavs might set their sights on many of the same players this summer, and man, would it suck to head out onto the trade market and get leapfrogged for the likes of Michael Redd by the Knicks. Especially as the Cavs are trying to convince LeBron that the Knicks are a team he shouldn't want to play for.

If the Knicks emerge from the offseason in better shape than the Cavs, there will be a lot of justifiably angry Cleveland fans out there.

3. The charade known as Mike Brown's offense has to end after this season.

Mike Brown has been given three years to come up with an offense that works. It hasn't happened. The total blame doesn't rest on his shoulders because Ferry hasn't acquired a real point guard or a star-caliber compliment for LeBron. But even without an elite sidekick or a "pure" point guard, you'd still probably think Brown could find more creative ways to utilize the game's greatest all-around offensive player.

Instead, the offense frequently grinds to a halt as LeBron is left dribbling the ball at the top of the key. He's the starter, finisher, facilitator, he has to create his own shots and the shots for his teammates. Of course, he's a superstar and the team leader, so he should be expected to do most of the heavy lifting. But Brown's so called offensive "coaching" seems to say "LeBron knows more about offense than me, so let's just put the ball in his hands and let him do his thing."

If LeBron or Brown stumble into something that works, the Cavs will inexplicably stop doing it five minutes later, kind of like when Bartolo Colon used to blow batters away with fastballs in the first inning, then come out throwing curveballs in the second inning.

The offense is disjointed, frequently stagnant and totally unimaginative. Brown rightly preaches defense as the path to a title, but the lack of a workable offense is a disservice to LeBron and a definite factor in the Cavs' inability to reach the 55-to-60 win plateau.

Offense and defense can coexist. The Celtics are proving that right before the Cavs' eyes. Heck, Gregg Popovich, the Yoda to the young Jedi knights of Ferry and Brown, has harmoniously balanced offense and defense on his way to four NBA titles.

If Brown can't or won't make offense happen, someone on that coaching staff needs to. If Brown continues to stubbornly resist an offensive assistant, then it's time for Ferry, or even Dan Gilbert, to step in and put his foot down. If Brown still resists, well ... I don't want to see him fired, but at that point, Brown would be standing in the way of progress. And if Brown truly is following the San Antonio model, he should be all about progress.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Motivation for the King

Never let it be said that professional sports has no bearing on real life. LeBron James, through persistent tormenting of the Washington Wizards and their fans, scored you a nearly-free Thursday dinner.

Last week, some D.C.-area Papa John's pizza restaurants mocked LeBron by sponsoring the now-infamous "Crybaby 23" t-shirts that popped up in the Verizon Center stands during last week's Game 6. Thursday, Cavs fans in the Cleveland area get to reap the tasty reward -- if you like Papa John's pizza, that is. In an attempt to counteract the bad publicity brought on by their misguided D.C.-area colleagues, more than 40 Papa John's locations across northern Ohio will be selling 23-cent, one-topping pizzas from 11 a.m. to 10 p.m.

LeBron, simply by being LeBron and doing what he does best -- winning, dominating, causing fans of opposing teams to look for some flaw to exploit -- made this day of pizza pleasure possible. But it's hard to believe that LeBron, finely-tuned athlete that he is, would partake in the pizza orgy even if he wasn't in Boston preparing for Game 2 of the Celtics series.

It has little to do with counting calories or cholesterol points. For LeBron, it has much more to do with motivation being its own reward.

Every time LeBron has faltered, every time he has failed to deliver the points, rebounds and assists that his team relies on for wins, every time he hasn't stuck the game-winning shot where it counts, every time an opposing player mauls him while the refs swallow their whistles and look skyward, it's fuel on LeBron's fire. The next game, you should expect his best, because that's exactly what he expects from himself.

Heading into Game 6 of the first round, LeBron was coming off a narrow Game 5 loss in which he had a chance to win it just before the buzzer. Whether a non-called foul was to blame or not, LeBron was left pleading with the refs while the Wizards celebrated the fact that they lived to fight another day.

LeBron knew the chance he and his team had just missed. No one needed to break it down for him. A lesser player might have been sent reeling by the missed chance. LeBron took it all in, the humiliation of Game 5, the "crybaby" t-shirts, the catcalls from the stands, the physical beating administered by the likes of DeShawn Stevenson and Brendan Haywood, and like any great artist, used it to create brilliance in his medium.

His final line from Game 6: 27 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists. His third career playoff triple-double. A 105-88 drubbing that sent the Wizards home for the summer yet again.

LeBron and the Cavs were riding high heading into Game 1 against the heavily-favored Celtics, a team that was looking suddenly vulnerable after letting the sub-.500 Hawks stretch them to seven games in the first round.

Game 1 was a close encounter. The Cavs lost by four and actually held a lead late in the fourth quarter after trailing for most of the game. But for LeBron, it was another flawed performance. By his standards, it was a dud.

LeBron scored 12 points during a downright Hughesian 2-for-18 shooting performance. He was tagged with four personal fouls that hindered his ability to drive aggressively in the second half. Even though Cleveland's defense did their part in holding Ray Allen scoreless and holding Paul Pierce to four points, the Cavs simply aren't going to win many games -- if any -- when LeBron scores 12 points, and he knows it.

Following the game, LeBron praised Boston's defensive effort, particularly their help defense, which allowed the Celtics' perimeter defenders to play tighter on LeBron than most teams can afford to. But he stopped short of pinning the entirety of his frustrating evening on the Celtics' D.

"I missed a lot of shots I know I can make," LeBron told reporters. "I missed layups. Those layups I've made my whole life."

Once again, with the doubters stroking their chins, waiting to see if The King has finally met a dragon he can't slay, LeBron will be forced to prove himself in Game 2 on Thursday night. Chances are, as those of us in Cleveland are hoarding our 23-cent pizzas, LeBron will be somewhere in the TD Banknorth Garden, drawing from the internal well of motivation that only those conditioned for greatness seem to possess, readying himself to once again rebound with a reputation-restoring vengeance.

"Sure," you might say. "But taking out the Wizards and their mouthy fans is one thing. These are the Boston Celtics. The Green Menace. Three of the best players in the game. Sixteen titles. The leprechaun in the rafters. Stopping them is a whole other ballgame."

To which I say, if LeBron isn't afraid, I'm not afraid. If watching LeBron over the past five years should have taught us anything, it's never to underestimate him, or his ability to make a better-than-last-year-but-still-not-all-that-impressive roster rise to the occasion.

Today, 23-cent pizzas. A month from now, maybe 23-cent drinks on Bourbon Street during a Cavs-Hornets NBA Finals.

Sure, it's a mid-spring night's dream. But with a motivated LeBron, just about anything on the basketball court is possible. Doubt him, and you might have to find that out the hard way.

Monday, May 05, 2008

Pigskin Podcast

Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy looks vaguely like porn star-turned-adult film industry spokesman Ron Jeremy. And in the latest edition of the Pigskin Podcast, I sound vaguely like a football analyst. Most of that is due to outstanding engineering work done by Joel Hammond and his cohorts over at the 'Cast.

Anyway, if you would like to hear my takes on the teams of the AFC North, and get an early May prediction of how I think the division will shake out this year, click here.

Saturday, May 03, 2008

Atlanta or Boston?

When the Cavaliers lost Game 5 to the Wizards on Wednesday, many fans (including me) thought they had lost several critical days of rest for the second round. The Celtics surely would eliminate the Hawks in their Game 6 on Friday, meaning the Cavs would have to do the same to Washington just to keep pace.

As we know, the Cavs held up their end of the bargain, putting an end to Washington's season for the third straight year. Fortunately, the Hawks didn't go quietly into that good night, and the one-versus-eight seed series that just about everyone thought would be the first round's biggest mismatch is now the only series that will go seven games. Game 7 is slated for Sunday afternoon in Boston.

So far, the home team has won every game in the Boston-Atlanta series. There is no real reason to believe Game 7 will buck that trend. The Cavs would be wise to pack their bags for Boston, because that's in all likelihood where they're headed to open the second round.

But seventh games do not fall under the umbrella of death, taxes or any of the other guarantees in life. So the Hawks, who have done so much to frustrate the more-talented Celtics over the past two weeks, have at least a fighter's chance on Sunday.

It begs the question, if you're a Cavs fan, who should you be rooting for on Sunday? Don't utter the knee-jerk response of "Atlanta, of course" just yet. Let's take a look at this in more detail.

Boston Celtics

Regular season record: 66-16
Regular season vs. Cavs: 2-2

Why you want them:

1. They've gone 11 rounds with the Hawks, and still aren't done.

This is quite obviously not the first-round series Doc Rivers and his crew had in mind. They were supposed to take care of the Hawks in no-fuss, no-muss style and have a good, solid five to seven days to rest up and prepare for the winner of the Cleveland-Washington series.

Instead, the Celtics and their aging anchors Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have been subjected to a grueling seven-game set and will have two fewer days of rest than the Cavs should they win on Sunday and advance.

2. This is where the East Coast media spotlight becomes really hot.

When you're good and you play in Boston, the praise is endless (see Brady, Tom). When you fail and you play in Boston, the criticism can pulverize you (see Everyone on the Patriots Roster, Post-Super Bowl XLII).

All season long, the national media has been singing high hosannas to the Celtics and how they're one of the greatest single-season teams of all time, how they won 66 games but had the team stats of a 70-win team, how KG is the ultimate leader and how that Doc Rivers might not be such a bad coach after all.

Now, one slip-up away from elimination, national media outlets are picking the Celtics apart to find out how this juggernaut can look so vulnerable. ESPN's resident spittle distributor Stephen A. Smith went on a two-minute tirade during halftime of Friday's Jazz-Rockets game concerning his belief that the situation the Celtics now find themselves in is unacceptable.

The Celtics can win Game 7 and advance, but nothing will change the fact that they will have had to survive a major scare to get to the second round, and no matter how much bravado they put up, they will not head into the second round brimming with confidence.

3. The Celtics have trouble stopping The Guy.

If your team has The Guy, and the Cavs certainly do, he can give the Celtics fits.

Joe Johnson has been The Guy for Atlanta in this series -- at least in the games played in Atlanta. Games 3, 4 and 6 netted Johnson 23, 35 and 15 points respectively as Boston's much-celebrated defense struggled to find ways to contain Johnson, particularly when he heats up from beyond the arc.

LeBron is not going to shoot it like Johnson, but he can penetrate and find wide-open teammates when the defense inevitably collapses on him. Play him physically as Washington did? Well, no matter how much contact any team dishes out, it's still tough -- and probably painful -- to stop 6'-8" and 260 pounds of Bron Bron Express from getting to the rim.

The Celtics are a more rugged team than the Wizards, but no one is going to confuse their frontcourt with the Broad Street Bullies. LeBron will win more battles than he loses in the paint, just on sheer size and strength alone.

Why you don't want them:

1. Rajon Rondo was born to play the Cavs.

Rondo hasn't put up monster numbers so far in the playoffs, but he's been effective, with double-digit point totals in every game except Game 6. With Boston's triumvirate of all stars, it's easy to overlook Rondo. But he's the type of player who makes life miserable for the Cavs.

Rondo is a sneaky-quick point guard who can slither by the Cavs perimeter defense and wreak all kinds of havoc inside. If the Cavs have to devote extra resources to stopping Rondo, it's going to open up the floor for KG, Allen and Pierce, and you absolutely do not want to face the Celtics in a position where those three can stand around and knock down jumpers because you're too busy chasing their greased-pig point guard around to stop them.

2. For Pierce, this would be personal.

Back in the days when Paul Pierce was a one-man show, he and LeBron used to hook up in some epic scoring duels. LeBron usually got the better of Pierce and the Celtics. So, suffice it to say that over the past five years, Pierce has developed a healthy dislike for losing to LeBron and the Cavs. Pierce will likely make that known to KG, Allen, Rondo and whoever else is listening should the Celtics and Cavs meet.

But unlike the Wizards who were mostly hot air, the Celtics can back it up on the floor.

3. 66 wins has to count for something, right?

Let's not overlook the obvious. The Celtics have three top-tier players on their roster, two of whom (KG and Allen) would seem to already have their hall of fame tickets punched. They have a pass-first point guard, a serviceable bench and the best defense in the league. This is a dang good team. Any way you slice it, if the Cavs play the Celtics and eliminate them, it would be an upset.

Atlanta Hawks

Regular season record: 37-45
Regular season vs. Cavs: 1-2

Why you want them:

1. A chance to put the suitcases down for a few days.

The Cavs are 2-1 at home so far in the playoffs, with the lone loss a product of a final-minute meltdown in Game 5. They were 7-1 at home in last year's conference playoffs, 4-2 in 2006.

That's 13-4 at home versus Eastern Conference teams in the playoffs during the LeBron James Era. Factor in last spring's NBA Finals sweep and the postseason home record is still a respectable 13-6. In addition, in the four playoff series in which the Cavs have held homecourt advantage since 2006, they've taken a 2-0 lead three times.

I'd take homecourt advantage whenever I could get it if I were a member of the Cavs.

2. The experience factor.

Boston and Atlanta might seem like they're at opposite end of the playoff spectrum. But they have one very important thing in common: Both teams have a nucleus of players making their first run through the playoffs together.

Playoff basketball is vastly different than regular season basketball in terms of how players mentally approach each game. So, no matter how much success the Celtics had during the regular season, there is still an adjustment period come playoff time. That's what you're seeing now as the Celtics struggle with their rotations, allowing Atlanta opening after opening to get back into games.

The Cavs are past that stage. Sure, half the roster was rebuilt in February, but the cornerstone tandem of LeBron and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, along with sidekicks Daniel Gibson and Anderson Varejao, remain in place from last year's Finals run, which is enough to maintain stability for the playoffs.

That experience advantage should help them somewhat against Boston, but it should help them a great deal against a young team like Atlanta.

3. Size inside, or lack thereof.

If the Cavs draw the Hawks in Round 2, they should once again be afforded a wide advantage on the boards. Atlanta's big man rotation is anchored primarily by Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia and Josh Smith. Smith and Horford are both above-average rebounders, but only Horford (6'-10" and 245) is really a load to handle inside.

Horford is the type of player Ben Wallace gets paid big bucks to put a body on. If Wallace does his job, and Varejao, Ilgauskas and Joe Smith pick up the slack, the Cavs should win the rebounding battle by at least 20 every night.

Why you don't want them:

1. OK, they don't have Tyronn Lue anymore, but...

The Hawks no longer have uber-pest Lue to dismantle the Cavs from the inside like a dreadlocked gremlin. But they do have a lot of exceptional athletes who can outrun and outjump any Cav not wearing No. 23.

Smith is a tremendous athlete. Josh Childress is a long, lean wing player who can score inside and out. Horford is is quickly becoming one of the best blue-collar players in the game, and Joe Johnson is an A-list shooter. Running the show is the point guard so many Cavs fans coveted, Mike Bibby.

In short, the Hawks have a formidable arsenal of weapons, even more than better teams like the Celtics, Pistons and Cavs. If they can't hurt you one way, they can probably do it another way. Because of that, it's very tough to shut Atlanta down for 48 minutes, no matter your team's level of defensive competence.

2. Starring Joe Johnson as Mr. Clutch.

It's deflating to an opposing team when they've tried everything to stop LeBron from getting to the hoop and he's still collecting three-point plays like a nine-year-old collects Pokemon cards.

Every bit as deflating is watching a red-hot shooter foil your best-laid defensive plans by draining three-balls over your team's defense. Short of fouling, there is nothing you can do about it except watch the ball sail through the net.

Ladies and gentlemen, meet Joe Johnson. A major factor in all three Hawks playoff wins to date. His shooting has confounded the Celtics as the Hawks rallied from large deficits in each of their wins.

If the Hawks advance and Johnson continues to burn nylon with his shooting, the Hawks will never be out of a game, no matter the deficit. And with the Cavs' tendency to slack with a large lead, that's a hungry dog-raw steak proposition.

3. "Pressure" isn't in the dictionary.

When your franchise hasn't been to the playoffs in nine years and your best shooter is several years removed from his last playoff run with the Phoenix Suns, you don't feel a whole lot of pressure. For a 37-win team like the Hawks, every playoff win is a win farther than pretty much everyone outside the state of Georgia thought they'd go.

Contrast that with the burden to perform faced by NBA royalty like the Celtics or Pistons, or the pressure the Cavs face to prove last year's conference title wasn't a fluke. It's like having to play a whole other team on top of your opponent.

It's tough to gain the mental edge against a team that feels virtually no pressure to perform. The Hawks are like a 12-seed in the NCAA Tournament, before they arrive at the Sweet 16 and everyone starts to take notice. For now, Atlanta is enjoying the perks of flying under the radar and taking everyone by surprise.

Thursday, May 01, 2008

Blowing a golden opportunity

It's become a defining trait of the Cavaliers during the LeBron James Era:

While the Cavs have shown an ability to rise to the occasion against tough opponents, they also have shown an utter inability to manufacture their own sense of urgency. Unless circumstances put their backs against the wall, you're probably not going to see a maximum effort out of this team.

Wednesday night, the half-speed Cavs showed up and lost Game 5 to the Wizards 88-87, and because of that, Cleveland's backs are a couple feet closer to the wall. The series heads back to Washington for Game 6 on Friday. A Wizards win there, and a series that was once firmly in the Cavs' grasp would be decided by a Game 7.

Few people in Cleveland are doubting that the Cavs can still win one of the next two. But after having watched the Indians blow a 3-1 series lead to the Red Sox a mere seven months ago, the idea of a Wizards rally has now moved from the backs of our minds to somewhere in the middle.

The sad fact is, if the Wizards even force a Game 7, this series would already be a failure for the Cavs on some levels.

With the Hawks already having forced the Celtics to a Game 6 (the Celtics now lead the series 3-2), a Cavs win Wednesday night would have meant a few precious extra days for the Cavs' aging frontcourt to rest their backs, knees, ankles and whatever else is aching them. By letting the Wizards prolong the series, the Cavs give a great deal of the rest advantage back. When it comes to a potential second-round matchup featuring Ben Wallace, Joe Smith and Zydrunas Ilgauskas versus Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, all oldie-goldies in their 30s with assorted bum leg joints and bad backs, the rest advantage could go a long way toward determining a winner.

But first things first. The Wizards are still alive and well in the postseason, and probably feel like they have a new lease on life after rallying from five points down with less than two minutes to play and enduring a miss by LeBron at the buzzer, on yet another Cavs final play that looked like it was executed by salmon swimming upstream.

We can look at the stat line and see the reasons the Cavs lost by the numbers. They shot 36 percent from the floor. They very nearly let the much smaller Wizards beat them on the glass, edging them 40-39. Zydrunas Ilgauskas had 19 points, Delonte West 12 and Joe Smith nine, but no other member of the James Gang was able to do anything to augment LeBron's 34 points. Wally Szczerbiak continues to look like a benchwarmer, scoring four points and coughing up a critical fourth-quarter turnover in nearly 18 minutes of action. And he's supposedly a starter.

They didn't have a solution for Caron Butler, who finished with 32 points and looked like a worthy, Carmelo Anthony-caliber adversary for LeBron. He was LeBron's superior in the clutch shooting department, cutting through the Cavs' interior defense and scoring the winning bucket on a runner over Wallace that rolled around the rim before falling in with 3.9 seconds to play.

Here's a secret that the Wizards don't want you to know: When Gilbert Arenas doesn't play -- and he won't for the rest of Washington's season due to continued knee problems -- the Wizards are actually a better team. They play better team basketball without the presence of their hip-shooting supposed leader who tries to solve every problem by jacking up a 30-footer.

When Arenas is out, guys with far better all-around games like Butler and Antawn Jamison step up, and the Wizards actually become more formidable. If Butler continues to play like he did Wednesday night, I don't like where this series is headed one bit.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Cavs knew they blew a game they should have won, a game in which they played sloppy ball for way too long and trailed for the majority of the 48, a game in which they took their collective mental foot off the gas because they thought they had everything signed and sealed with a late five-point lead.

Most of all, LeBron will take the floor in Game 6 looking to atone for the sins of Game 5. But now he and his teammates will have to once again fight the road playoff environment in Washington's Verizon Center, the "overrated" chants, the trash talking and, more than anything, a Wizards team that now wholeheartedly believes they have a chance to pull this series out.

The Cavs have overcome the worst the Verizon Center has thrown at them so far. It didn't stop West from inserting the dagger in Game 4. If they overcome a hostile road environment one more time and close this series out on Friday, then Game 5 can be swept under the rug and forgotten.

But if the Wizards prevail and force a winner-take-all Game 7, the Cavs will have already lost in one form, even with a Game 7 slated for the friendly confines of The Q.

For the remainder of this series, whether they ultimately advance or suffer a humiliating collapse that sends them home for the summer, the Cavs will have to carry one extra burden on top of everything else: It never should have gotten to this point, and they have no one to blame but themselves that it has.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Sweet redemption

It's still early, and baseball careers normally aren't defined over the span of one month, so it's easy -- prudent, even -- to take Cliff Lee's fast start with a wait-and-see grain of salt. After all, we've seen it in baseball more times than we can count: Today's headliner is tomorrow's forgotten footnote.

But even if you're still cooling your heels and not joining a "Cliff for Cy Young" campaign just yet, you should still take special notice of Lee's 2008 start.

Why? He's been good through his first four starts. Very good. Historically good. And with his April performance he is casting away the demons that haunted him in 2007, a season that might have had him questioning his place with the Indians, maybe even his place in the game.

First things first. Let's establish just how far Lee has come from the doldrums of last year. In his first four starts, he has compiled a 4-0 record and 0.28 ERA. He's surrendered 11 hits and two runs all year. Only one of those runs was earned, hence the ERA that fits neatly onto a microscope slide.

Batters might as well be coming to the plate with toothpicks slung over their shoulders when Lee is on the mound, because those big sticks of lumber they usually carry aren't doing them any good. Contact hitters, power hitters, it doesn't matter. They've combined to amass a .109 average off Lee so far.

Hitters' approaches haven't mattered either. Swing aggressively? Lee has 29 strikeouts. Stay patient? He's only walked two batters all year.

The last pitcher to be so dominant over his first four starts was Roger Clemens, who posted an identical 4-0 record and 0.28 ERA in 1991. Clemens ultimately ended up with an 18-10 record and 2.62 ERA, and cruised to the Cy Young Award with 119 voting points and 21 first-place votes.

Time will tell what is in store for Lee during the remainder of the '08 season. There will be time for analyzing that later. Because this fantastic April that Lee has authored isn't really about his stat line or where this month will stand among the greatest pitching months in baseball history.

It's about the redemption of a man who, less than a year ago, didn't even belong on the Tribe's big league roster.

Last year, Lee was shelved with an abdominal strain in spring training. The injury took several months to heal properly, and when he returned to the rotation in May, he was firmly out of sync. The problems snowballed from there.

With control and command that had already been compromised by injury and lack of practice, Lee's historical penchant for giving up hits and runs in bunches seemed to become a monster he couldn't control. He made mistake after mistake over the plate, and hitters knocked the stuffing out of whatever came from his left hand. He was on pace to set career highs for hits and runs allowed if the plug hadn't been mercifully pulled on his spot in the rotation after 16 starts.

But the damage had been done by season's end: A 5-8 record with a 6.29 ERA, and Lee's pitching reputation in shambles. Making matters worse, his temper got him into trouble at least twice.

In May, he engaged in an altercation with Victor Martinez following a start in Texas. Lee beaned Sammy Sosa on the night when the Rangers were celebrating Sosa's 600th career home run. Martinez reportedly took exception to the beaning, and the confrontation led to a team meeting after the game.

After getting shelled by the Red Sox at the end of July, Lee was roundly booed by the Jacobs Field crowd upon being lifted from the game in the fifth inning. His frustration boiling over, he sarcastically tipped his cap to the crowd. The next day, he was sent down to Buffalo and wouldn't see the big leagues again until rosters were expanded in September.

With the emergence of Fausto Carmona and, to a lesser extent, Aaron Laffey, many fans thought Lee was expendable this past winter. Message boards across the Internet were alive with trade scenarios that could have sent Lee packing to any one of a number of destinations across the country. The overarching theme: We don't want a pitcher who stinks up the joint, then gets mad when we boo him. Send him to the National League, where he can face eight-man batting orders.

But in an offseason during which the Indians infamously did next to nothing to improve the team from the outside, Lee was among the non-moves.

Mark Shapiro and his brain trust, almost to a fault, don't want to trade away pitching. It's maddening at times, especially when you know a pitcher might be able to buy Shapiro the power-hitting corner outfielder his team so desperately needs. But, like it or not, there is more than just a little wisdom in that approach.

When confronted on the subject of why he hangs onto pitchers, even at the expense of improving the offense, Shapiro has two case studies he can point to now. In Carmona and Lee, he has two prime examples of patience paying off.

Perhaps Shapiro was lucky in both instances. Or perhaps he knows that in this world of baseball, redemption is just a year, or a week, or even a start away.

Cliff Lee knows that for sure.

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

An identity crisis

When the playoffs start in the NBA, the action invariably becomes more intense. Players foul harder, tempers flare, shoving matches sometimes result.

Occasionally, someone will cross the line and earn himself a technical foul. On rare occasions, someone might even jump way over the line and get slapped with that scarlet letter of NBA discipline, the flagrant foul (I'm looking at you, Rasheed Wallace).

Most of the time, it's an accepted part of the high-stakes dance of the playoffs. Players aren't setting out to maul their opponents; they just want to win and get to June.

Then there's the Washington Wizards, the team the Cavaliers have had both the fortune and misfortune to meet in the first round for the third straight year.

At their best, the Wizards are the Eastern Conference poor man's version of the Phoenix Suns. They are fronted by three capable scorers in Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. Those three are surrounded by a battalion of serviceable role players like Brendan Haywood, Antonio Daniels, Andray Blatche and the man everyone in Cleveland knows and loves, DeShawn Stevenson. Running the show is a highly-underrated coach in Eddie Jordan.

The Wizards have been a playoff participant for four straight years, largely on the shooting, penetrating and rebounding of their big three. They win with offense primarily. Defense isn't a completely foreign concept to them, but it would be fair to say 80-75 is not their ideal final score.

They've had decent success playing that way for almost half a decade, probably about as much success as you could expect from a team that has a good-but-not-great roster and lacks a true superstar to offset that fact as the Cavs do. Which makes the Wizards' sudden shift to Rick Mahorn disciples rather confusing.

Maybe it's the pressure rendered by the prospect of losing to the same team in the first round three years in a row. Maybe someone pulled Jordan aside and made him believe that the toughest, most defense-minded teams usually advance in the playoffs. Maybe they're desperate. Maybe they're flaky. But whatever is happening, the Wizards are drilling holes in the hull of their already-sinking ship with this messy attempt at physically intimidating the Cavs -- and, of course, LeBron in particular -- into submission.

The Wizards don't have the personnel or the practice to play that type of ball, and it shows. Strange as it might sound, there is an art form to inflicting pain but doing it in a clean enough fashion that you don't get players ejected or start a melee under the basket. You can send a message and still make it look like you're going for the ball.

Maybe the Wizards tried that early in Game 1 and decided it wouldn't work to stop all 6'-9" and 260 pounds of LBJ. They're probably right. So instead of going back to the binge scoring they execute so well, they decided to kick the dirty play up a notch in Game 2.

An aggressive shove to the back from Arenas to Wally Szczerbiak when Sczcerbiak was attempting to back the smaller Arenas down in the post. Haywood's Hack-a-Bron tactics that culminated with his overzealous shove of LeBron in the third quarter and subsequent ejection.

Before we paint the Cavs as helpless victims, they did their part, too. Anderson Varejao was whistled for a flagrant foul for using his arm as a club in the first half. Ben Wallace was guilty of a karate chop in the first half that netted him a good, old-fashioned personal foul. So pain was being administered on both sides.

But what the Wizards are doing seems to go deep, and some might say too far. Their thug tactics are aimed at inflicting pain, and quite possibly injury, on LeBron, the man for whom they have no answer.

It's the kind of play you fear when you play tough-guy teams like the Pistons. But Detroit at least knows how to play aggressive defense and commit hard fouls within the rules of the game. Telling the Wizards to play that way is like telling a 16-year-old with a newly-minted driver's license to speed down a crowded freeway at rush hour and not wreck 20 cars in the process.

The 16-year-old probably thinks he can do it. As an experienced driver, you know better.

So for at least two more games, we have to entrust the safety of our superstar to three referees, a handful of teammates and, if it gets that far, the NBA Commissioner's Office. Meanwhile, the Wizards will probably continue to live in a fantasy world where they can use their massive girth and sharp elbows to dissuade LeBron and his teammates from venturing into the paint. And if that doesn't work, hey, there's always upending LeBron in midair and hoping he lands squarely on his head.

The Cavs are halfway done with disposing of this apparently-delusional team. Here's hoping they win the next two and end this series as quickly as possible, before something really bad happens.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Five questions for the Cavs

After 82 regular-season games, what we know about the 2007-08 Cleveland Cavaliers is ... not much more than what we knew in November.

Give LeBron and Co. credit for this much: They've succeeded in maintaining an aura of mystery for more than six months. Everything you thought you knew about this team at the outset of the season has pretty much been turned upside down.

In November, the Cavs were a gritty team enduring the contract holdout of Anderson Varejao. They didn't have overwhelming talent across the board, but they had guys who could hold down the fort, keep games close with defense and give LeBron a chance to play hero in the fourth quarter. Which, in his best season yet, LeBron played very well.

But contract holdouts gave way to injuries. LeBron's finger. Sasha Pavlovic's foot. Andy's ankle. Then, possibly under pressure from both inside and outside the organization, Danny Ferry shook the roster like a giant snow globe at the February trade deadline. Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden out along with four others; Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and Joe Smith in.

The injuries kept coming: Daniel Gibson's ankle, Zydrunas Ilgauskas' back, Wallace's back, LeBron's back, Sasha's foot again. The net result is a team that never clicked, never found their stride like you would expect from a defending conference champion. The defense-first philosophy is out the window, largely because Mike Brown has been so busy attempting to acclimate his new players to his system (which isn't known for being easy to grasp, mind you) that he can't hammer away on defensive principles in practice the way he'd probably like.

The offense, so dependent on LeBron, fizzled as LeBron battled a back injury for most of the past month. Szczerbiak and West have shown flashes of the offensive firepower they are capable of bringing to the table, but nothing consistent enough to make fans stop fretting.

So, as we stand on the cusp of another playoff run, who are the Cleveland Cavaliers? Here are five questions that need to be answered:

1. Can LeBron continue to carry this team on offense?

It would seem foolish to bet against arguably the greatest player on the planet. But it would also be foolish to assume LeBron can continue to fight through the wear and tear of the postseason with no negative affects.

LeBron seemed to tail off toward the end of the season. Part of it was due to his back, which he says has healed. But it just didn't look like he had that great freight-train explosiveness that makes him so dangerous when he gets a path to the rim. He's also seen a rise in turnovers, many of them unforced. Maybe it can be blamed on a lack of familiarity with his new teammates, but it's also not outlandish to think that even The King could suffer from a bout of mental fatigue.

All this, and he still has to fly to China and play in the Olympics this summer.

2. Can the bigs provide the advantage they did in last year's playoffs?

The Cavs got to the NBA Finals last spring with more than a little help from their big men. The trio of Z, Gooden and Andy provided the undermanned Wizards and undersized Nets with matchup problems galore, and helped make life a little more difficult for the Pistons, too.

No surprise, then, that the Cavs made a habit of dominating the boards at both ends of the floor, taking the opposition out of their offensive rhythm and providing the Cavs with plenty of second-shot chances. The play of their bigs was right up there with the play of LeBron and Gibson as the most important reasons the Cavs shocked the world with their first conference title.

This year, it's a whole new ballgame.

To look at the roster, you'd think the Cavs would have a great depth advantage in the frontcourt with Wallace and Smith accompanying Z and Andy. Wallace is a rugged rebounder who can step out and guard smaller players. Smith is a decent rebounder in his own right, and we already know what Z and Andy can do.

But the carousel of injuries has placed a damper on what should be a major team strength. Wallace is always one tweak away from another back flare up, Z is going down that road as well, and Andy simply hasn't been the same energy guy, at least consistently, since his January ankle sprain.

In short, we don't know what each of these guys are going to be able to give the Cavs in the playoffs, or for how long. A limping, aching frontcourt is going to drag this team down in a big way.

3. Will the real starting shooting guard please stand up?

Even before Pavlovic went down with his latest foot sprain, the shooting guard situation for the Cavs was less than desirable.

Pavs was the best choice to start because he could do the most at both ends of the floor. He is the best athlete and tallest defender of the off-guard bunch. With Pavs out of commission for at least one series, the starter's job likely falls to Devin Brown, who has performed admirably down the stretch of the season. But he's probably not a guy you want to pencil in for 40 minutes a night, which means the bench bunch of Szczerbiak, Gibson and Damon Jones becomes all the more important.

The Cavs have to get good play out of at least a couple of those guys. Unfortunately, Mike Brown will probably find himself in a situation where he has to substitute on a situational basis in an attempt to mask the shortcomings of his grab bag of two-guards. Already, we know Jones, Gibson and Szczerbiak basically bring nothing in the way of defense. Heading into a series in which stopping Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas will be Jobs 1 and 1a, that's not exactly comforting to know.

Ferry had better put the shooting guard spot near the top of his to-do list for the summer. The Bucks and Grizzlies, rebuilding teams that currently employ Michael Redd and Mike Miller, should be on Ferry's speed dial.

4. Can Delonte West play the point at a playoff level?

West has been in the league for a few years now, but never on a team expected to make waves in the playoffs. Now, he needs to mature in a hurry from youngster with potential to legitimate starting point guard on a veteran playoff team.

Time will tell how long the Cavs last in this year's playoffs, but if West sticks around here long enough, he'll likely find himself squaring off against the likes of Chauncey Billups, Gilbert Arenas or Mike Bibby in a high-stakes playoff series on more than one occasion.

West is already the closest thing the Cavs have had to a true point guard playing alongside LeBron. But pushing the ball against the Charlotte Bobcats in a March regular season game is light years away from tangling with Billups or Arenas with your season on the line.

The upcoming playoff series will be a baptism by fire for West. We'll soon know a lot more about whether he's a player worth building around.

5. Is Mike Brown part of the problem or part of the solution?

Fans have been passionately divided over whether Brown's coaching helps or hurts the Cavs. When fan punching bags Hughes, Gooden and Donyell Marshall were shipped out of town and the Cavs still didn't streak to the top of the standings, Brown became the new lightning rod for the fans' ire.

There is value in both arguments. On the good side, Brown did show that a team can play over its head if it knows how to play defense. The Cavs were not an elite team last year, but they played elite-level defense down the stretch and in the postseason, and it was one of the biggest factors in getting the team to the NBA Finals.

It will take time, but I have confidence that Brown will eventually get the current Cavs squad to play defense at a high level, and it will help them win games.

The offense is another issue. No matter what Brown does, the Cavs never seem to find an offensive scheme that works. Maybe it isn't all his fault, as keeping players from falling into a "stand around and watch LeBron" trance seems to be a full-time job in and of itself. But you have to wonder why a team that has a superlative offensive talent like LeBron can look so predictable, vanilla and ultimately ineffective at the offensive end sometimes.

Don't expect him to change anytime soon. Brown was, for lack of a better term, "scared" back to his defensive principles when the Cavs broke camp last fall and promptly became one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Brown immediately blamed himself for the grievous sin of eschewing defense during camp in favor of teaching offense. Bet he won't do that again.

But even with all of that offensive baggage in tow, if defense wins championships, it's hard to vote against a guy who thoroughly understands that.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Borowski burnout

It will happen. Somehow, some way, Joe Borowski will eat through the notorious resolve of the Indians' brass.

Like caustic acid, Joe Bo will slowly destroy the stick-to-your-guns, stay-the-course philosophy of Eric Wedge and Mark Shapiro that says you should never rush to any conclusions, be patient to a fault and let things play out over months, not days or weeks.

Forty games is supposed to be the magic number, we're all told. You can't make a judgment on any player, any team, until you've passed that milestone game sometime in May.

Well, we're less than 20 games into the 2008 season, and here's what I see: I see a Major League team that is trotting out a pitcher who is throwing arrow-straight, 82-mph fastballs and calling him their closer. Moreover, this is a team with World Series aspirations.

I'm not really peeved at Borowski so much as I'm peeved at Shapiro and his roundtable of eggheads who agreed that picking up his option over the winter was a good idea. And, no, this isn't a case of hindsight being 20/20. The Ivy League-educated brains who run this shop saw the same stat line, the same ghastly peripheral stats and the same 5-plus ERA we all saw out of Borowski a year ago. They saw the same pitcher ducking and dodging his way to 45 saves that we all did.

There is cost-effective. And then there is common sense. Common sense should have told any decision-maker with an office high atop Progressive Field that maybe, just maybe, Joe Bo caught lightning in a bottle last year and maybe, just maybe, it was asking too much of him to re-create his '07 success, which netted him an American League saves title, but was otherwise tentative at best.

As far as option-year pickups, the Tribe already has Titanic-caliber and Lusitania-caliber disasters to their credit with Borowski and Aaron Fultz, who was so bad he didn't make it out of spring training with the club.

But Fultz was at least just the second lefty in the bullpen. Borowski is charged with making sure that leads become wins. In two of four save situations so far this year, he has -- in spectacular, homer-surrendering fashion -- failed to do so.

I'm going to venture to say this isn't a slump. Borowski is less than three weeks from his 37th birthday. He arrived on the Tribe's doorstep after the '06 season with a unhealthy right shoulder that caused the Phillies to renege on what would have been a multiyear contract offer. Chances are, the Indians squeezed the last juice out of Borowski's arm last season.

Unfortunately, the Indians, ever cost-conscious and not wanting to interrupt the apparent chemistry that made one of baseball's best bullpens in '07, overplayed their hand and decided to gamble on Borowski for one more year.

Maybe the Tribe's big thinkers can be forgiven for not anticipating Borowski's arm going bad as quickly as it has. Maybe no one could have foretold Borowski coming to spring training with a lifeless fastball parked in the low 80s on the radar gun. But any baseball executive worth his reputation should be able to look into the future and see the day when his aging closer with a bad shoulder is going to hit the wall.

So far, it looks like the Tribe's leaders didn't. Or if they did, they did their best to ignore it and think happy thoughts. That worked in Peter Pan, but it surely won't in the American League pennant race.

As long as the Indians continue to trot Borowski out there with his overmatched batting-practice fastball to continue to blow saves, it's a poor reflection first and foremost on the Indians, not Borowski. His stat line has been dropping plenty of hints over the past year that the end of his productive playing days might be near.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Pressure point

Ever since C.C. Sabathia arrived in Cleveland eight years ago, his ability to handle pressure has always been red-flagged.

It's not that C.C. has a weak stomach or lives in fear of being the guy in the spotlight's glow, it's that how he deals with acute pressure seems to be, at times, self-destructive.

All throughout his professional career, and probably his entire life, C.C. has struggled to keep his emotions in check. Some professional athletes' competitive nature lead them to keep a cool, collected demeanor under pressure. In Cleveland, you'd probably immediately think of John Elway surgically removing the Browns from Super Bowl XXI with an assassin's calm. Some athletes get goal-focused tunnelvision, like Michael Jordan with his long list of game-winning shots.

Then there's C.C., who too often falls victim to his own frustration when adversity rears its head in a pressure situation. His performance in last year's playoff run is only the highest-profile example in a career that has been plagued with streaky performance.

When C.C. becomes frustrated, it immediately becomes evident on the mound. The methodical approach to pitching that he finally mastered in last year's Cy Young Award-winning season goes out the window. He either becomes a thrower, attempting to gas every hitter with 97-mph heat, or he becomes a 300-pound Charles Nagy disciple, nibbling at the corners with off-speed stuff. Neither approach works very well.

Unfortunately, an offseason's worth of separation from last October's failure hasn't helped C.C. very much. His first three 2008 starts have been miserable. The offense bailed him out on opening day, but two starts against the Athletics -- one of which was in Oakland, near his hometown of Vallejo, Calif. and a place where he perpetually struggles -- have earned him two losses and raised his ERA to 11.57, the worst of any Indians starter, including Paul Byrd (11.05).

Is it merely a hangover from his unforgettably forgettable postseason, or is there more to it than that?

Unless you're in C.C.'s inner sanctum, it's difficult to say what's really eating at him. But I don't think it has anything to do with facing Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in the ALCS.

C.C. is facing pressure, yes. But this is a whole different kind of pressure. It's the pressure of a free-agent-to-be star pitcher who just watched Johan Santana get traded to the Mets and sign a contract extension worth nearly $140 million over the winter. It's the pressure to get that kind of deal for himself, his family and his agents. And the only way he's going to be worth Santana-type money is to go out and dominate like he did last year.

This is pressure, but it hits far closer to home than toeing the rubber in a playoff game. This is the chance to obtain an amount of money so vast that virtually everyone in his immediate and extended family would be free from financial want for generations to come.

When Santana signed his contract extension, you can bet it sent shockwaves through the C.C. camp. Suddenly everyone close to him had a barometer for how much he's going to be worth in free agency, and now he feels the need to live up to that barometer.

There are more factors at work here than just C.C.'s performance. If the Yankees are desperate enough for pitching this winter, they might still hand C.C. a record deal. But there is always that chance that his performance this season could mean a swing of tens of millions of dollars in the money he'll be offered.

Based on the terse, sarcastic answers C.C. offered for a story in The Plain Dealer on Sunday, his frustration is thinly-veiled. His answers to pointed questions about whether his contract situation is gnawing at him smacked of a man shaking off medical help after hurting himself:

"To put extra pressure on yourself [because of the next contract] makes no sense. This game is hard enough to play as it is. I've never been a guy to put that type of pressure on myself."

Sorry, C.C., I'm not buying it. Your career has provided too much evidence to the contrary when it comes to how you handle pressure. And I'll go so far as to say I'm sympathetic. I don't know what it's like to be the meal ticket for your entire family, close friends, and a nice, fat commission for your agents, so I'm not going to be the one to say that you need to suck it up and just play ball. It's almost certainly not that simple.

But I will say that it's kind of disheartening to know that the pressure you feel is not the pressure of winning a World Series for the Indians. It's the pressure to get out of Cleveland, out of the clutches of an organization that can't and won't offer you record money, and into the waiting arms of a well-endowed big-market club.

But if C.C. is feeling this kind of pressure before he even signs on the dotted line, I certainly won't envy him when and if he's in the center of the diamond at the Yankees' new stadium next opening day, wearing pinstripes, an eight-figure contract in tow and the eyes of the world on him.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Looking out for No. 1

Fausto Carmona is one of those guys you should want to root for. Anyone who has been mishandled, thrown to the wolves and emerged as one of the games rising young stars the way Carmona has deserves your backing.

And now, after agreeing to a contract extension Thursday that is worth up to $48 million and could keep him in a Tribe uniform through the 2014 season, you will have plenty of chances to back the budding ace of the Indians' staff.

Always tagged as a player to watch as he moved through the Indians' farm system, he made his big league debut in 2006 bouncing around among various roles before settling in as a setup man, one of the few bright spots of that '06 bullpen.

If Indians management had kept him in that role, who knows how his future might have panned out. But as we all know, the Indians, solidly out of contention that year, traded Bob Wickman to the Braves and decided to toss Carmona into the fire of ninth-inning save situations.

The result might have ruined a lesser pitcher. Two walk-off homers surrendered in the span of a week. One to Pudge Rodriguez in Detroit and one to David Ortiz under the bright lights of Fenway Park.

By the end of the season, Carmona's name was a 10-loss punch line. Fans of other teams giggled when mentioning Carmona's name in the presence of a Cleveland fan, usually accompanied by a snide remark like "Bet you just LOVE him, don't you?"

We've seen it before, this paralysis-by-overanalysis mishandling of a pitcher that seems to get the better of the Tribe's big brains every few years. Danys Baez bounced around between the rotation and the bullpen, eventually bouncing his way out of the organization. Jason Davis had other issues, namely command of his stuff, working against him, but the Tribe's waffling on his role probably didn't help him get his sea legs.

So you could be excused if you expected to see Carmona arrive for spring training 2007 as a bundle of knotted nerves in need of a psychologist more than a pitching coach.

But what transpired was a great show of perseverance from a young ballplayer. Carmona, reinstated as a starter, had to wait his turn, but when injuries to Cliff Lee and Jake Westbrook opened the door, Carmona rushed in and hasn't looked back.

Nineteen wins later, Carmona was fourth in the AL Cy Young Award voting and, along with C.C. Sabathia, formed the best 1-2 pitching punch in baseball.

Through two starts in 2008, Carmona has shrugged off concerns about his endurance after pitching 215 innings a year ago. He has been nothing short of dominant, far and away the best pitcher in the Tribe's rotation in the young season.

Armed with a mid-90s fastball, heavy sinker and developing off-speed stuff, there is reason to believe he'll only get better, granted the blessing of good health.

He's the right pitcher coming along at the right time for the Tribe. With the more-than-likely departure of C.C. to a deep-pocketed team this winter, Carmona will soon be thrust into the role of undisputed ace, Game 7 starter and stopper of losing streaks. It's a hefty load, but if Carmona's showing since last April is any indication, he'll be up to the challenge.

In a roundabout way, Carmona's disaster of a stay in the closer's role two years ago was a blessing in disguise. It gave birth to a new pitcher, one who is battle-tested, even-keeled and mature. Those are just the qualities a staff ace needs. And that's just what Carmona is becoming.

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

The good and the bad

A week's worth of baseball is hardly enough time to develop a realistic view of a player's performance. But that's never stopped us before.

With the Indians treading water at or near the .500 mark, there is already plenty to discuss concerning the Tribe's bats and arms. Already, fans are developing some strong opinions about who is earning their keep, who should be shuffled onto the next bus to Buffalo, and who should be airlifted to Siberia.

In that spirit, let's take a look at some Indians who deserve gold stars one week into the season, and some who deserve a time out in the corner.

All this and brains, too

Fausto Carmona

He wasn't quite as dominant in Monday's outing against the Angels as he was in carving up the White Sox in the season's second game, but his sinker is working overtime, he's throwing strikes and he is setting the stage for one heck of a season. If he keeps it up for six months, he'll be a Cy Young favorite.

Grady Sizemore

With the stalled starts of Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, Sizemore's .321 average and .406 on-base percentage through Monday wasn't getting a lot of ink. But he's the Tribe's best hitter who hasn't suffered a hamstring pull to date.

Victor Martinez

When Martinez pulled his hamstring, the offense went in the dumper. Martinez is, quite simply, the most important bat in the Tribe's lineup.

Ryan Garko

Here's hoping that Garko did enough weight training this offseason, because he's going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting in this lineup, especially if Hafner continues to plateau. So far, with a .304 average, four RBI and six walks drawn, he's been up to the challenge.

Rafael Perez

Too bad he's so dang valuable as a set-up man, because he'd be a dynamite closer. Through Monday, he had three strikeouts, two walks, a hold and no earned runs in four appearances. The two walks are the only real blemishes on his stat line so far.

It's a start...

Cliff Lee

One start is just that -- one start. But knowing how badly Lee struggled in 2007, to see him pitch 6 2/3 shutout innings in his first '08 start warms the heart. Now, let's see him do it all year.

Jake Westbrook

Six hits and two earned runs in his first start, covering 7 1/3 innings. I'll take it. If he can keep his obliques from ripping, he'll be fine.

Masa Kobayashi

Two appearances spanning 1 1/3 innings, four hits, but no walks and no runs entering play Tuesday. Already, he's better than Roberto Hernandez.

Craig Breslow

I'll admit, when the Indians picked this guy up, he scared me. He came from Boston with the reputation of being Ralph Macchio to Mitch Williams' Mr. Miagi in the School of Wild-Armed Lefties. But so far -- deep breath -- so good. Two innings of work through Monday, one hit surrendered, one strikeout, no walks. But keep in mind that Aaron Fultz started out well last year, too.

I'm not impressed, but I'll withhold judgment for now

C.C. Sabathia

Reigning Cy Young winners get the benefit of the doubt. But doesn't it seem like C.C. lives off the benefit of the doubt a lot? He throws really hard and shows flashes of brilliance, so when he struggles, it's largely viewed as a blip on the radar. But, even with last year's brilliant April-to-September performance, his postseason flameout reminded us all that C.C. has the stench of inconsistency on him, likely until the day he retires.

Paul Byrd

Bad karma alert. Any time you get caught up in baseball's steroid/HGH controversy, it's bad medicine. Byrd's first start left him with a 6.23 ERA. I'm not optimistic about his season.

Franklin Gutierrez

He still needs to prove he can hit righties. He still needs to prove he can hit for at least reasonable power. He brings the defense, but through a little over a week, .182 and one homer just ain't cutting it at the dish.

Rafael Betancourt

ERAs can be a misleading stat for relievers, but any way you slice it, three earned runs and nine hits in your first 3 1/3 innings of work isn't good. If Betancourt crashes back to Earth this year, the Tribe's bullpen is in deep trouble.

Travis Hafner

Nine strikeouts in his first 25 at-bats. Yeesh. He might recover to post solid numbers this year, but I'm beginning to wonder if the days of .300 and 40 homers from Pronk might be over.

Casey Blake

He's 34 and will turn 35 before the end of the season. He's never been an ultra-quick hitter, never really able to make the last-nanosecond adjustments to foul off a nasty pitch. As he inches up through his 30s, he'll only get slower at the plate. So far this year, he's been Eeyore.

Asdrubal Cabrera

No surprises here. Pitchers have adjusted, and now Cabrera must either adjust back, or adjust back to life in Buffalo.

Jhonny Peralta

He must be taking hitting tips from Hafner, because he's hacking away at the plate again. Of course, hacking and guess-hitting seem to become epidemics with this team at times.

The Hefty bag

Andy Marte

Please, please, please end this experiment. The sooner Mark Shapiro and Eric Wedge can come to grips with the fact that they whiffed when they made Marte the centerpiece of the Coco Crisp trade, the better off we'll all be. Stuffing him into the team cargo hold because he's out of options and playing him once a week is simply one last weak attempt to justify a non-factor of a trade.

Jason Michaels and David Dellucci

Playing Dellucci against lefties, Michaels against righties, Dellucci against righties, Michaels against lefties, Michaels during the day, Dellucci at night, Michaels on cloudy days, Dellucci on sunny days, NONE of it will make this a good platoon situation. No matter how hard Eric Wedge tries.

Joe Borowski

A bit harsh to place him on the scrap heap? Maybe. But the legendary general manager Branch Rickey once said that the key to being a successful GM is to get rid of players one year before you have to. I don't think Shapiro did that with Borowski, who already has a walk-off grand slam on the books.

Sunday, April 06, 2008

Where have I been?

Here and there. Mostly there.

I returned to Cleveland yesterday after spending nine days either in the UK or travelling to and from. Along the way, I spent time in London and Edinburgh, Scotland, and negotiated three of the world's biggest and busiest airports in London Heathrow, John F. Kennedy in New York and Chicago O'Hare.

I'm exhausted, I'm jet-lagged and I've been out of touch with Cleveland sports for more than a week. I wanted to see the Indians' opener, but bars that feature baseball, let alone an Indians game, are rare in London.

But I've been reading what I can online, so here are some brief hits on some sports topics:

Indians

From 2-0 to 2-3. Is it time to push the panic button? No, but it's becoming apparent that the Tribe's offense is going to make or break the season. And when Victor Martinez can't play, as he hasn't due to a hamstring strain suffered on opening day, this offense just isn't going to make the cut most games.

As we know, the Indians' offense is dependent on steady production from several big bats. They can't mash one through nine like the Tigers or Yankees. If one of the Tribe's big boppers is out or mired in a long slump, it really hurts the offense. And Martinez's steady, clutch, switch-hitting presence just might be the most important component of the Tribe's lineup. Once Martinez returns, the offense with probably get its act together. Until then, we might be in for some pretty boring games.

I will be very interested in C.C. Sabathia's next outing. The star pitcher who is next in line to pig out at the money trough, C.C. has looked spectacularly lukewarm in his first two '08 outings. He needed a huge hit from Casey Blake to bail him out on opening day, and he struggled Saturday in Oakland, as he typically does for whatever reason. But so far, C.C. doesn't look like the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and future holder of a $120 million-plus contract.

An overweight, slow-starting, playoff-crumbling, muscle-strain-prone pitcher with one great season to his credit. You sure you want to break the bank on this guy, Yankees? Just something to chew on.

Cavaliers

I'm to the point where I'm about to put up the good ol' emotional defense mechanism with this team so I don't get disappointed when the Wizards finally get the best of them in the first round later this month.

The Cavs are staggering to the finish line, losers of five of their last seven, hampered by a rash of back spasms that has affected even LeBron James. Once one of the best fourth quarter teams in the league, the Cavs are now one of the worst. Dismal second halves doomed them against the lowly Bulls and high-flying Magic, which has taken the Cavs' place as the team most likely to break the Detroit-Boston death grip on the Eastern Conference.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: This is a transitional year. By tearing down the roster and rebuilding at the trade deadline, Danny Ferry made a statement that the old roster wasn't going to win a title, even though the old roster probably could have gotten back to the NBA Finals simply because, as Ben Cox put it on his blog, they were a flawed machine, but a well-oiled flawed machine.

Right now, the Cavs are experiencing the unfamiliarity and disarray that a rearranged team should ideally overcome in November and December. But the trade happened in February and injuries have been an ongoing theme since then, prolonging the problems.

Maybe next season, after having gone through a postseason, offseason and preseason together, the story will be different. It should be, especially if Ferry can add another major piece this summer. But for now, this team is playoff dog meat. They're beaten down and LeBron is running out of gas from another season of having to do virtually all of the heavy lifting with little help.

Maybe the Cavs can get their act together in time to squeak by Washington in the first round one more time. But it's no guarantee, and it won't be pretty if they do. And their reward for making it to the second round will be a beatdown at the hands of the Celtics.

Final Four

When my champion selection North Carolina went down on Saturday, my brackets were officially trashed. I'm actually looking forward to the Kansas-Memphis final, if only because everyone said Memphis couldn't make it this far. I also didn't hear a lot of votes of confidence in the Jayhawks, though they had to knock off spunky Davidson to get to San Antonio.

I'm rooting for Memphis because they've been to the doorstep of the Final Four the past two years only to get turned back. Now they're here, and everyone was so hung up on their inability to shoot free throws, they didn't give them a realistic chance to win it all.

The Tigers are a powerful team, and with North Carolina sent packing, they are the strongest squad left in the tournament. They've earned their battle stripes, and I think it would be very appropriate if Memphis is the team cutting down the nets on Monday night.