Monday, July 12, 2010

Summing it up

This is what it’s like to sit down and write a column about LeBron James leaving the Cavaliers and Northeast Ohio behind:

I’m sitting on the balcony of my new apartment in Willowick on a summer morning. It’s the first time in a week that the heat and humidity have relented to the point that sitting on the balcony is reasonably comfortable.

Off to my right, Lake Erie. Directly in front of me, the complex’s other building. Off to my left, the shopping center across the street, framed by green trees to the horizon.

Right, center, left. Left, center, right. No words coming to mind. No entry point emerging. I keep looking up from my laptop screen in an endless oscillation from vista to vista, side to side.

LeBron James is too big of a character. He meant too much to the region. There were so many other players involved in this production. It’s stunningly complex, will be a painful subject for years to come, and can’t possibly all be understood by viewing the saga through a single prism.
I truly have no idea where to begin.

After some time has passed and the longer morning shadows begin to slip under the balcony railings on the other building, a breakthrough – sort of. Art gives way to science. The only way to understand this is to chew, swallow and digest. Break everything down into its constituent parts.

I scan across my panorama one more time, then look back down at my screen with a little bit more purpose.

We gave LeBron too much credit for being one of us.

Something about Clevelanders – we really want and need to believe that our heroes identify with us. That they sympathize with our pain as fans and want to make it right. We projected that onto LeBron more than anyone because of where he was born.

LeBron makes mention of The Drive and The Fumble, and it tugs at our heartstrings. He gets on stage at a Rock the Vote concert and tells us he loves us and he’s not going anywhere, and it makes us fall in love all over again.

To LeBron, however, it was likely forgotten as soon as he said it. He didn’t remember until some guy with a microphone asked him about it.

It’s not slick marketing or self-promotion. It’s the in-the-moment utterances of a kid who is fascinated by his ability to manipulate the masses.

Truth is, LeBron isn’t one of us. He stopped being one of us as soon as Nike made him a millionaire before he was drafted in 2003. He never espoused the same values, he was never “in touch” with what we were feeling, he never had a special connection to the area he called home. Not any more so than you or me. And plenty among us would prefer to live among palm trees if given the chance. It’s only being honest.

LeBron is Hollywood. He is Manhattan. He is South Beach. He is a jet setter, one of the beautiful people, rich beyond the wildest dreams of 99.5 percent of the American population. The only thing that attaches him to Ohio is his birth certificate. His lifestyle, his values, his acquaintances, none of it was at home in our unglamorous, unremarkable region.

In Miami, he’ll be able to indulge in every trapping of celebrity 101 for young males: fast cars, beautiful women, exclusive dance clubs, VIP parties. And he’ll be able to do it after every home game. At age 25, the spoils of a town like Miami are a major benefit for someone like LeBron, who is known for hosting his share of jet-set shindigs.

David Justice had much the same attitude when he played for the Indians. Cleveland, he thought, had nice enough people, but the town just wasn’t his scene. His teammates nicknamed him “GQ” for a reason. Of course, when Justice departed via trade in 2000, he did so much more gracefully and graciously than LeBron just did.

Maybe it wasn’t the deciding factor in why LeBron left for the Miami Heat, but there wasn’t a lot beyond basketball keeping LeBron here. Which is 180 degrees from what we believed (or wanted to believe) prior to the past week.

Can you make LBJ the centerpiece of a championship team? Maybe not.

Prior to LeBron’s defection, common wisdom stated that all great players wanted to have their own team, so obviously LeBron would never want to join forces with another alpha dog. You would never have seen Michael Jordan team with Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas or Larry Bird. Not on the NBA stage, anyway.

There was the dynamic between Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant on the Lakers teams of early last decade, but those two thrived on being adversaries, constantly one-upping each other. And neither could lay claim to having been a Laker first. Both arrived in Los Angeles in the summer of 1996.

LeBron has shown now that he does not think like that, possibly because he’s simply not an alpha dog. That’s not his personality, no matter how much he is marketed to the contrary.

He is, plainly put, going to Dwyane Wade’s team. When Wade, LeBron and Chris Bosh were unveiled in their Heat uniforms on Friday, LeBron and Bosh flanked Wade. That is the team dynamic in Miami moving forward. No matter how far Wade scoots over on the pedestal, the highest perch can only hold one pair of shoes. And those belong to Wade.

Second-in-command might be the ranking for which LeBron is the most suited. This is a guy who has never looked totally at ease taking the last shot. A guy who has never totally grasped the concept of what it means to make your teammates better. A guy who has shown through his actions that his competitive fire doesn’t burn as brightly as it does with some other great players. That he is not above shutting down mentally when a nagging injury means he might look less than dominant on the court.

In other words, LeBron might be totally cool with letting someone else take the last shot. Whether it’s a fear of failure and/or being the goat, or that he simply isn’t the assassin that Kobe is and Jordan was, he might be more comfortable inbounding the ball to Wade and getting out of the way when the clock is about to reach “0.0.”

So if LeBron is fine with never being held in the same esteem as Kobe, Jordan, Magic or Bird – and, judging by the fact that he has agreed to join another superstar’s team, he is – the move to Miami might be a stroke of brilliance for LeBron. It means winning with a vastly reduced pressure factor. Perfect for a guy who might have been miscast as a king all along.

There is no “LBJ” in “team.”

With all of that in mind, it was quite possibly a futile pursuit to try and build a championship team around LeBron. And if that is the case, it was definitely misguided for Dan Gilbert and Danny Ferry to make LeBron the foundation of the entire organization.

LeBron couldn’t help but overshadow every player the Cavs put alongside him. It led to the widely-held belief around the country that, year in and year out, the Cavs roster consisted of LeBron and a band of scrubs – an assertion that might have been closer to fact five years ago, but certainly not over the past two seasons.

If we can assume that LeBron will function better as part of an ensemble of superstars, that surely wasn’t going to happen in Cleveland. As a result, no matter who the Cavs put around LBJ, he would always block out the Sun for his teammates with his massive presence.

It’s not healthy for one player to carry so much weight on a team. And with the Cavs, LBJ’s influence extended to all parts of the organization – from the locker room all the way up to the owner’s office. If you put every last egg in the basket of one player, it’s almost certainly a recipe for disaster. This past Thursday evening, the earthquake hit.

Is it possible to sell out for winning?

I used to think that giving up money for the sake of winning was noble. Then I saw LeBron give up everything he had supposedly stood for to this point in his life in the name of chasing rings. And I now realize that obsessively coveting anything – be it money, fame, championships or anything else – can corrupt a person.

This is the topic that cuts right to the heart of our hurt as a city and region.

We wanted LeBron to stick with us until he delivered a championship to the city. To recognize that it will be a hard road to the top, riddled with disappointment and setbacks, but the tougher the journey, the sweeter the victory. We wanted him to embrace the burden of being Cleveland’s sports savior, recognizing that some of the greatest players in NBA history had to wait for the balance of their careers – sometimes until quite late in their careers – before they tasted a drop of championship champagne.

We wanted him to acknowledge that championships are extremely hard to capture, aren’t a birthright, and to continue to fight the good fight, figuring out new ways to exercise his vast talents, until the last pieces fell into place and the long-sought title was achieved.

That would have been the harder route to take, but the route with more honor.

But that’s not the route LeBron took. Haunted by visions of being, as he put it, “31 with bad knees and no titles,” LeBron abandoned his home region, sold out any chance of being perceived as loyal ever again, and any hope of becoming a self-made champion, in favor of trying to stamp out championships assembly-line style on a ready-made contender in Miami.

In a quarter-century, 50-year-old LeBron might look back and think 25-year-old LeBron was pretty stupid. But right now, 25-year-old LeBron thinks this is a good idea.

Perhaps the greatest error in LBJ’s line of thinking is the concept of “his time.” Jordan had his time. Kobe is having his time. The assumption with LeBron has always been that, at some point, every great player has his dynasty. And if you don’t have a dynasty, you aren’t a great player.

So after being turned back in the playoffs the past two years, LeBron panicked. Now he’s trying to force-feed a dynasty into existence with Wade and Bosh. It might happen. But when LeBron looks back after his career at how it was all achieved, he might realize that the rings aren’t as shiny as he thought they would be, considering what he had to give up to win them.

LeBron was a monster created.

It takes a lot of work from a lot of people to turn a kid from a green 18-year-old rookie into someone narcissistic enough to have his free agency decision broadcast on an hour-long nationally televised special. Vain enough to demand that pursuing teams visit him, not the other way around. Callous enough to completely cut off communication with Cavs owner Dan Gilbert in the days leading up to his decision.

When you seldom hear “no,” when everyone around you is mostly interested in pleasing you, lest they get booted out of your circle of trust, chances are your ego will overinflate and your sensitivity toward other people will begin to erode. If everyone around you is figuratively casting rose petals at your feet, sooner or later you’ll really believe that you are better than everyone else, and that no spectacle is too great a display for you.

You will also begin to believe that you owe nothing to anyone, that you can toy with the people swirling around your personal vortex, and if you cause damage to them or their endeavors, that’s their problem.

LeBron has been doing this for a few years now. He damaged the Cavs’ ability to sign free agents by not committing to the team long term. Last summer, Trevor Ariza balked at taking the Cavs’ midlevel exception offer because of the uncertainty surrounding LeBron. The uncertainty of LeBron’s future ramrodded the Cavs into an “all or nothing” mindset, making trades with only the present in mind, and in the case of the Antawn Jamison deal this past February, saddling the team with an aging player signed to an expensive long-term contract. It’s a move the Cavs might not have made if not under the threat of losing LeBron to free agency.

Of course, it does take two to tango, and former GM Danny Ferry wasn’t forced to add Jamison, or Shaq, or anyone else. But the common – and correct – assumption is if the Cavs didn’t show LBJ they were doing everything in their power to win a championship, it would significantly damage their leverage at the bargaining table this summer.

LeBron might have had a Miami rendezvous with Bosh and Wade in the works since the Olympics in 2008. It might have been his first choice all along. But whether it was or it wasn’t, he strung the Cavs along since then, damaged their ability to improve the team, possibly damaged their cap flexibility in the short-to-medium term, all in the name of stoking the fire of intrigue this summer.

Then, when the summer finally arrived, he messed around some more, waited until most of the other major free agents committed somewhere, then left the Cavs, and to a lesser extent the Bulls and Knicks, holding the bag.

Even in the cutthroat world of professional sports, you don’t work other people over like that unless you have a massive superiority complex.

But for a guy who has spent his adult life ruling over everything he surveys, the results are predictable.

So, where to go from here?

I’d like to tell you that the Cavs are better off without LeBron. That they can just as easily do without the manipulation of a destructively narcissistic and egotistical 25 year old.

But the Cavs aren’t better off. They’re worse off, and will be for quite some time. Even if LBJ will never ascend to the levels of Kobe or Jordan in the spectrum of NBA all-time greatness, he is still a superstar who made playoff 1-seeds and later-round postseason appearances possible.
Now, that’s not possible for the Cavs anymore.

Dan Gilbert and new GM Chris Grant have said, at varying decibel levels, that the Cavs will remain committed to winning, both in the short and long term. Perhaps words meant to cushion the blow to their season ticket renewals. But I wonder if that is the right path.

Unless the Cavs can get another superstar in a trade, or at least several star-caliber players, it will be extremely difficult to rise above the low playoff seeds in the coming years. And that is the worst place to be for an NBA team – not good enough to contend for a title, not bad enough to draft high enough for star-level talent.

There is absolutely no reason to stay on a treadmill of 35 to 45-win seasons, year after year. But that is where I fear the Cavs will land if Gilbert refuses to sign off on a rebuild.

The windfall trade that replenishes the team with star power may be out there. The Cavs have negotiated a sign-and-trade to complete LeBron’s acquisition by Miami. The sign-and-trade will deliver a large trade exception and a package of draft picks – which might be used soon as part of a badly-needed “big splash” deal.

But a deal like that isn’t guaranteed. And even if the Cavs manage to rebuild the roster in short order, the Eastern Conference is so stacked at the top with potential powerhouses like Miami, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta and Chicago, it will be very tough for a post-LeBron Cavs team to swim upstream against that current over the next few seasons.

But the Cavs do have assets which they can use to get better, and Gilbert seems more determined than ever to outmaneuver LeBron’s defection. There is no apparent reason the Cavs should need to bottom out to the pre-LeBron levels of the 2002-03 season, when the team went 17-65. But in a league driven by star power, the Cavs don’t have any right now, and until that changes, they aren’t going to have much weight to throw around in the East.

After getting all of that off my chest, I exhale, relax the muscles around my eyes and let the light flow back in.

As I type out those last few paragraphs, I glance up from my monitor and gaze out at the lake – at its midsummer blue best. Sailboats are on the water. Earlier in the morning, an ore carrier cruised in the distance from west to east.

Off to my left, there are still cars on the road, still people walking into the supermarket in the shopping center across the way. LeBron is no longer a Cav, and life still goes on under a sunny, warm early July blessing of a day.

It turns out that maybe … just maybe … LeBron James isn’t that important after all. And that’s a very empowering thought.

Monday, June 07, 2010

The Gunslinger

The Cavaliers are an unstable organization with an uncertain future. They have no coach, a rookie general manager and a superstar free agent who is going to do a lot of observing of offseason moves, in Cleveland and elsewhere, before committing to a team.

If there was ever a time to strive for consistency and stability, you'd think now would be it. But at least in the mind of Dan Gilbert, it's not.

The alternative was to maintain the status quo, retain Mike Brown and give Danny Ferry no reason to step down as general manager. But faced with the reality of back-to-back league-leading regular seasons with not even an NBA Finals berth to show for it, Gilbert saw a system that needed an overhaul.

So overhaul he did. Mike Brown, arguably the most successful coach in franchise history, was shown the door after two straight years of lackluster playoff performances against other contenders.

Ferry, who has always been in Brown's corner, likely didn't agree with the decision. But if he was to stay on as GM, he at least wanted to maintain full control over basketball operations -- and hire his own coach.

Gilbert wanted to remove total autonomy from Ferry's job description, opening the door for a big-name coach who might want some say in how the roster is constructed. Ferry didn't like what he was hearing, and with his contract expiring, saw the opportunity to bow out. Chris Grant, Ferry's top assistant, has taken over the general manager's role. Gilbert was emphatic in his assertion that Grant is not a placeholder, and will not carry an "interim" tag on his title.

But that doesn't mean that Grant will have final say on all basketball matters as Ferry did. He could end up developing a specific specialization, such as the draft. Grant has handled the Cavs' drafts for the past few years. He could end up as a puppet GM -- George Kokinis to a new coach's Eric Mangini. That's a setup that is bound to end badly, but that's another discussion.

What we know for certain is that Gilbert is the only figure lending any stability to the Cavs organization right now, and he is in the process of installing his second leadership regime with no guarantee that LeBron is coming back.

There really isn't a blueprint for what Gilbert is trying to accomplish. LeBron is the only selling point that would attract a big-name coach to Cleveland. Landing a big-name coach is a major key to reassuring LeBron that the Cavs are committed to winning titles. So how do you sell a big-name coach on coming to Cleveland when the superstar that makes the job attractive is waiting to see if you can make the hire -- and might still bolt even if you do make the hire?

A only if B, and B only if A. It's a maddening Catch-22. How can Gilbert do it? We're getting our first case study in Michigan State coach Tom Izzo.

Several days ago, Gilbert reportedly offered Izzo a lot of money -- up to $6 million a year, double his salary at Michigan State -- to come to Cleveland and root the Cavs in the philosophy of dogged competitiveness and staunch defense that has helped lead the Spartans to six Final Four appearances and a national championship in Izzo's 15-year tenure.

At first glance, it looks like a well-connected Michigan State graduate in Gilbert overvaluing Izzo as the be-all, end-all who can cure everything that is wrong with the Cavs. But once you start peeling back the layers on Gilbert's line of thinking, the interest in Izzo does make a bit more sense.

Despite a vast improvement in roster talent over the past two years, the Cavs regressed at the defensive end. When you look at the small army of defensive liabilities they added to the roster -- namely Mo Williams, Shaq and Antawn Jamison -- it's easy to blame Ferry for the shift away from defense.

But Gilbert is right to look to the coach to set the tone for defense, and Izzo would coach defense -- not just on a cerebral level, as Brown did, but on a level that promotes mental toughness and aggression.

Izzo has no NBA experience, but his college success has made him a national celebrity, which means he has the presence to coach someone like LeBron, who is knowledgeable about college ball and likely appreciates Izzo's body of work.

But would the money, even an outright cause-effect guarantee that Izzo's arrival would signal LeBron's return, be enough to lure Izzo to town?

It would be wise to assume not. Like a lot of in-demand college coaches, Izzo can use Gilbert's hot pursuit to put a scare into the Michigan State athletic director's office. And scared executives can be far more giving of both praise and money.

Darn near worshipped throughout much of his native state of Michigan, with a sterling reputation that has been buffer to a mirror shine, there just isn't a lot of incentive for Izzo to do more than listen to the Cavs and keep his mouth shut long enough to make Michigan State sweat a bit.

Maybe he'll see an extra three million greenbacks a year and cave to Gilbert's siren song, but the cash is all Gilbert really has to work with. His vacant coaching position could be a dream job or a prison sentence, depending on LeBron's loyalty.

And if Izzo says no, Gilbert has to find another coach to try and court. And once again, he has to sell any coach worth pursuing on the mere possibility that LeBron is coming back. And that's as basketball power broker and LeBron entourage member Wes Wesley is trying to convince anyone within earshot that LeBron is on the fast track to the Chicago Bulls.

As the Summer of LeBron warms up, it seems as though Dan Gilbert is more of a gunslinger than any of his players could ever hope to be. About a month after his players tip-toed out of the playoffs with one of the most tentative postseason performances you'll ever see, Gilbert is sticking his neck far out in pursuit of improvements to his team -- and by extension, in pursuit of LeBron's signature on a contract.

At a time when it would seem that the proper plan of action is to get in the blast bunker and lock the door, Gilbert has dismantled the bunker and begun a search for new raw materials.

It's either going to be a significant triumph or a massive failure. But at least he's going to try, which you have to admire. Having said that, you are fully allowed to admire Gilbert's moxie with your hands over your eyes, peeking out from between your fingers.

Wednesday, June 02, 2010

Tradition trumps history

There are few places where the past and future dance around each other more than they do in Major League Baseball.

Few entities combine a strict adherence to the laws of the past, written and unwritten, with landscape-altering gimmicks that completely break from the past.

Baseball is the sport that can't implement a salary cap, thanks to more than 100 years of contentious labor relationships between players and owners, and that baggage it has packed to this day. So while the NFL, NBA and NHL have succeeded to a degree in leveling the competitive balance between small market and big market teams, baseball is still a sport in which the privileged few spend about 90 percent of the time ruling over the less-privileged many.

Baseball is the sport with two leagues playing by two different rules because, roughly 40 years ago, American League owners liked the idea of having a professional hitter designated specifically to take the pitcher's turn in the batting order, with the idea that it would increase offense. The National League decided against it, and since 1973, the designated hitter has been a battle line in the war between new school and old school.

Baseball is the sport that embraced artificial turf first, but it's the sport that loathes the memory of the symmetrical, cylindrical multi-purpose stadiums that kept the artificial turf industry afloat for more than 30 years.

Baseball introduced interleague play in 1997, then counteracted it with the introduction of the unbalanced schedule a few years later. Now, the Indians sacrifice dates with the Yankees and Red Sox not only to play the Reds and Pirates, but also to play the Tigers and Twins 19 times a year.

Baseball is also the sport in which umpires still have virtually unquestioned authority. And Wednesday night in Detroit, unchecked human error crept into the equation in the Tigers-Indians game, robbing Detroit pitcher Armando Galarraga of a perfect game.

Replays showed that Tribe hitter Jason Donald was out, and it really wasn't that close. With two outs in the top of the ninth, Donald hit a grounder to first for what would have been the 27th and final out of the game. Detroit first baseman Miguel Cabrera picked the ball cleanly, and delivered a throw to Galarraga covering first.

The throw was a little low, but Galarraga corralled it with little difficulty and put his foot on the bag. A freeze-frame showed Donald's lead leg was about a half-step away from the bag when Galarraga had the ball in his glove and his foot on the bag. But umpire Jim Joyce -- an accomplished umpire with more than 20 years on the job -- called Donald safe.

It was a flat-out blown call. An honest mistake, to be sure, but a major mistake. One that corrupted what should have been a historic night.

It would have been a continuation of one of the great statistical anomalies that make baseball distinctive. Heading into this season, 18 perfect games had been thrown in the history of Major League Baseball. Dallas Braden threw the 19th on Mother's Day. Roy Halladay threw the 20th this past Saturday. Galarraga should have had the third perfect game in less than a month. But Joyce's error, and baseball's unwillingness to put processes in place to correct it, left Galarraga with what is likely the most hollow one-hitter in baseball history.

Jim Leyland and every Detroit coach, player and fan within audible distance emphatically disputed Joyce, who argued back. Confronted later with the evidence, Joyce was quick to admit his error.

"I just cost that kid a perfect game," he told a reporter afterward. "I thought he beat the throw. I was convinced he beat the throw, until I saw the replay."

But once Joyce's arms went out in a "safe" signal, there was no turning back.

Perhaps Bud Selig and the rest of baseball's policymakers feel that, by putting 100 percent of the burden on umpires to get the call right, they're forcing the umpires to stay sharp by promoting total accountability. What baseball doesn't want is a setup like the NFL, where replay all but drives officiating, where side judges will routinely get out-of-bounds and possession calls wrong, seemingly guessing on the right call, knowing that coaches will challenge the call and replay will correct any mistake.

But what baseball has is a replay policy that has changed little from the days of Honus Wagner and Napoleon Lajoie. In the past two years, baseball has begrudgingly instituted replay on home run calls, allowing umpires to review whether a ball was fair or foul, or if it hit above the line that separates the outfield wall from the stands.

But on questions of balls and strikes, safe or out, not much has changed from the horse and buggy days.

Balls and strikes are, admittedly, another animal altogether. Baseball couldn't possibly institute a system in which every questionable ball and strike call is reviewed, or games would take six hours. But on the bang-bang play at first, the swipe tag on the stolen base attempt, the diving catch that TV replays showed to be a trapped ball -- in this era of high definition television feeds and 12 different camera angles, there is just no excuse to get those calls wrong anymore.

It's time for baseball -- the sport of the designated hitter, interleague play and the all-star game that determines homefield advantage in the World Series -- to cease clinging to the archaic ideal that replay technology will somehow corrupt the purity of the game, or turn umpires into robots. Because the only thing that's getting corrupted is history in the making.

Jim Joyce failed Armando Galarraga on Wednesday. But the office of the commissioner failed Joyce. Now Joyce is shamed and Galarraga might never scrape so close to greatness again.

That's a crime. But the real crime occurs when Selig and his cronies avert their eyes and continue to pretend that it's a bygone era where nothing can be done about it.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Who are the Cavs?

It's been nearly two weeks since the Cavs slammed the door on our fingers with a head-smacking second round exit at the hands of the Celtics. It's enough time to do some digesting of the situation.

Much has been, and will be, made of what happened in the Cavs six-game ouster, their wet-rag performances in the four losses. Was it LeBron's damaged elbow? LeBron's damaged ego? Mike Brown's inability to coach effectively during games? A player revolt against Brown's failure to adequately settle on rotations? Or were they simply an underperforming team that ran into a red-hot Boston team?

All fair questions. But you're not going to find any mining for answers in this space.

The reason is simple: that doesn't matter. What happened against Boston is yesterday's news. The point is, the Celtics won the series, the Cavs' season ended, and now it's time to pick up the pieces.

What is abundantly apparent is that the Cavs of next season will, in all likelihood, look far different. Right now, there is a tug of war going on within the Cavs' ranks over the future of Brown and his staff. It's hard to imagine that Brown will retain his job after back-to-back 60-win seasons with not even a Finals appearance to show for it. But then again, Browns coach Eric Mangini looked as good as fired early last December, so stranger non-firings have happened.

Danny Ferry's contract is running out. If Dan Gilbert doesn't retain him, or Ferry elects to pursue other avenues, the Cavs will have no head of basketball operations until they hire someone else.

Then there is the LeBron soap opera. He'll be a free agent on July 1, and a few teams -- Cavs included -- might be kicking around the idea of signing him. In case you hadn't heard.

And even if LeBron, Brown and Ferry all return next season, there is simply no way the Cavs can endure the playoff humiliation they just endured without some organizational scarring. It's safe to assume the "team of destiny" mindset and can-do attitude that permeated the organization over the past two seasons will be severely withered, if not entirely dead. Even with mostly the same team returning next year, any optimism will likely be diluted with caution, or even outright cynicism. Even if the players and coaches try to fight it, it's going to be impossible to escape the widespread criticism from the fans and media.

For certain, no one who follows the NBA will be predicting the Cavs to even sniff the Finals in the spring of '11, LeBron or no LeBron. They now have a richly-deserved reputation as a regular-season dynamo that can't win in the playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks of the East.

If LeBron does re-sign with the Cavs, it's possible that the honeymoon between he and his home region fans will have ended. He simply withdrew from serious competition for the balance of three games against Boston, all blowout losses. His reputation took a major hit in Cleveland and throughout Northeast Ohio.

If LeBron does re-sign, we'll still appreciate him and we'll still cheer for him, but the elephant is now in the room. He quit on us during a time when he had everything to play for. No matter what he does in the regular season, the footnote at the bottom of the page will say "He'll just choke in the playoffs again." It will be that way until he wins a title.

And that's if he comes back. If he signs elsewhere, hell be reviled every bit as much as Art Modell. This is the new reality for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

So where do they go from here? The Cavs need more than sanding and polishing. It's not just about acquiring guys to match up with Dwight Howard or Rashard Lewis anymore. The Cavs, as an organization, have some questions to answer about who they are and what they want to be moving forward.

If I was a basketball doctor, this is the prescription I'd write. It's not a cure-all, but it might get this team on a 12-step plan to recovery.

Mike Brown does need to go.

Say what you will about scapegoating the coach, but it's time for new blood on the sideline. It's time for a new voice in practice and in the locker room.

Brown is a typical example of a coach who no longer fits his role. The Cavs have changed a lot since Brown took the helm prior to the 2005-06 season. Back then, the Cavs were an undertalented group that lacked discipline and good basketball fundamentals. Brown was the protege of quality coaches such as Gregg Popovich and Rick Carlisle. He understood that defense can take a team that lacks offensive talent and turn it into a winner.

From 2005 to '08, Brown was the right man for the Cavs job. The Cavs were a playoff underdog, and it was Brown's defensive scheming and constant preaching of defensive fundamentals and effort that led them to some of the proudest moments in franchise history: a six-game thriller over the Wizards in 2006 -- LeBron's first playoff series -- then nearly upsetting the Pistons in the next round. A Finals run in 2007. A near-upset of the Celtics as a 45-win team in 2008.

But then, in the summer of '08, Gilbert opened up his pocketbook and let Ferry acquire Mo Williams. The following summer, Shaq arrived. This past winter, it was Antawn Jamison.

Through a series of blockbuster trades, the Cavs amassed one of the best collections of offensive talent in the league. They didn't need to play like a gritty underdog anymore. They could win most games by outscoring the opponent. Suddenly, Brown's coaching was obsolete in the minds of the players, whether they would admit it or not.

In the span of about a year, the Cavs went from needing a coach who harps on mechanics and fundamentals to a coach who can manipulate a room full of egos for maximum effect. They need a basketball psychologist. But that's not Brown's strength. He's a basketball bookworm who has always been most comfortable in the film room and toting a dry-erase clipboard.

The Cavs, quite simply, need a veteran winning coach if they aspire to continue on as a veteran winning team. Brown will find work again, probably leading a team that is in need of "Winning Basketball 101" tutoring, like the '05 Cavs were. But he doesn't fit the Cavs now, and won't in the future.
The Cavs are, at their heart, a running team.

If the Cavs do end up firing Brown, they need to hire a coach who will nuture this team's true DNA, which was starkly absent in the playoffs when the team played slow, passive basketball.

The Cavs are a running team. They are an offensively-gifted team. It's time to stop pretending that they are anything else. They are not a lockdown defensive team. They are not a grind-it-out halfcourt team. They are an uptempo team that should be focusing on small lineups, increasing possession volume, increasing shot volume and viewing turnovers as a necessary evil -- forgivable as long as you keep pushing the ball and finding open shots.

For much of this season, Brown and Shaq combined to turn the Cavs into a slow-down team. When Shaq injured his thumb and spry youngster J.J. Hickson moved into the starting center spot, the Cavs had their hottest streak of the season.

It's not a coincidence. Over the past two seasons, the Cavs have always been at their best when they trotted out small, fast lineups that could run and score. When you looked up and down the lineup at athletes like LeBron, Hickson, Williams, Delonte West and Anderson Varejao, it was easy to see why. The Cavs' best players have been fast, active players. LeBron is the best fast break player in the league by a wide margin.

But the loss to Orlando in the '09 Eastern Conference Finals occurred, and the Cavs' brass decided the best courst of action was to get bigger and stronger. Shaq fits the Cavs' makeup like an army boot fits Cinderella. Anthony Parker was reduced to a spot-up jump shooter, far from the dynamic role he had with the Raptors. Zydrunas Ilgauskas looked out of place as a starter in '09, and completely unfit for the floor as a reserve in the just-completed season.

If the last two seasons teach nothing else, it's that you shouldn't make moves just to match up with one team. A good team like the Cavs has an identity, and that identity is created by the makeup of the team. And the Cavs are a fast break team.

So, what to do about it?

It would be a moderate shock if Ferry wasn't retained as the Cavs GM, but whether he or his successor is running the show, it's time to build a team that can be competitive, interesting and draw fans to the The Q whether LeBron returns or not.

First off, hire a coach who is willing to let this team run while still keeping defense relevant. The time will come when defensive effort will be needed, but the coach needs to trust that a veteran team will know when that time is, or at least will be able to turn on the effort with very little prodding. And if they don't play D, they lose those games. That's how you get a team to be accountable.

The Cavs don't need to have a 24/7 obsession with defense, as Brown believes. After so many years, you don't need to drill them on it like you're drilling third-graders on multiplication tables.

Second, find a point guard who can run an uptempo offense. The ideal candidate would be relatively young, lightning quick, have a tremendous handle, reliable midrange jumper and the presence to command the floor. In other worse, someone who can allow LeBron to move without the ball -- but more than that, someone with the ego and voice to dictate the game to LeBron. It could be a tough task. LeBron isn't used to not having control of where the ball goes, and he is most certainly not used to being told what to do.

Mo Williams is not that guy. Nor is Delonte West. They are auxiliary scoring options, not floor generals.

If I'm dreaming, I'm looking at Chris Paul, the current centerpiece of the cash-strapped Hornets -- a team that has a lower-cost future point guard to develop in Darren Collison. My faith in humanity would be restored if the Cavs could land Paul, who also happens to be one of LeBron's best friends in the league.

If I'm being more realistic, I'd be looking at Grizzlies guard and Ohio State product Mike Conley, Kings guard Beno Udrih and Rodney Stuckey of the Pistons. The Timberwolves also have a small army of point guards, including the rights to Spanish phenom Ricky Rubio.

If you have a point guard who can run a fast-paced offense, it's time to put the young legs out there -- mainly Hickson. J.J. should be the starting center for this team moving forward. He is undersized at 6'-9", but if he isn't starting at center, that means a slow, lumbering guy probably is. And while it's true that centers are the outlet-pass guy and don't necessarily need to be fast, it's also true that the other team is getting all five guys back on defense while your center ambles into the frontcourt. So you either slow up the tempo or play five-on-four for the first 8-to-10 seconds of the shot clock. Enough time for the other team to set their defense.

With that in mind, it's time to bid adieu to Shaq and Z. Shaq, it was real. Thanks for your time. Z, No. 11 will hang from the rafters in a few years. But your time as a Cavs player is over.

A fast-paced, active team will be competitive without LeBron and likely remain a 60-win contender with LeBron. In either case, the Cavs make the best of their situation. With LeBron, they're an offensive juggernaut. Without LeBron, they can still win, and the gate receipt apocalypse that many are predicting for the post-LeBron Cavs might be diluted, if not averted entirely.

Yeah, there is still the little thing about beating Boston and Orlando in the playoffs. A small, fast Cavs team might still have trouble handling Dwight Howard and Boston's beefy frontcourt. But after the frustrating playoffs exits of the past two springs, you have to think positively:

If you're going to get drilled by Orlando and Boston every spring, you might as well look good doing it.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Slump of a career

First off, I'm going to try really hard to not bury the Cavs prematurely.

The fact of the matter is, this series isn't over. Some approximation of the Game 3 LeBron and Game 3 Cavs could show up in Game 6. Boston is already further than they were supposed to go in this postseason and the Cavs' backs will truly be against the wall. LeBron once again has something personal to prove, like never before in his seven NBA years. The Celtics have had some of the same inconsistency issues as the Cavs, and they've strung together two great games. They're due for a flat game.

So there is still a chance, more solid than grasping at straws, that this series will find its way to a seventh game. And as we know, Game 7's are a completely different animal from any other type of playoff game.

Now, having said all of that ... severe damage has been done to the Cavs, and to LeBron James, in this series. Damage that might alter the future of the Cavs and LeBron, and will certainly alter our perception of who is now a disgraced king.

Unless the Cavs find that championship-level switch that we've been waiting 10 games for them to flip, unless they win the last two games against Boston and ride that momentum to series triumph over Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals and the Western Conference champion in the NBA Finals, the Cavs are going to look a lot different next season, and LeBron -- whether he's still here or playing for another team -- will have an elephant in the room with him. And the only way that elephant is going to leave the room is if LeBron wins a championship. Or perhaps multiple championships.

Mike Brown will be fired, probably very quickly after a Cavs elimination. He wasn't dealt the greatest of hands in the past three months, needing to work Antawn Jamison into the rotation just as Shaq left the stage with a torn thumb ligament, then being forced to adjust his rotations on the fly when Shaq returned for Game 1 against Chicago. And as has been discussed many times in this space, the Cavs being forced to accommodate Shaq on the fly is like asking the Indianapolis 500 to accommodate a dump truck on the fly.

That aside, Brown's rotation-adjusting has always been an area of criticism. He tends to add to the upheaval when things aren't going right by mixing and matching willy-nilly. At this point in the season, if you can't give players defined roles, you are going to anger them and mess with morale. That is exactly what has happened in this series. Shaq was biting his lip after Game 4, when he was benched for all of the fourth quarter. Bench players such as J.J. Hickson and Jamario Moon, who have both given the Cavs solid minutes in this postseason, have seen their playing time jump all over the board from game to game.

In Game 5, forgotten man Zydrunas Ilgauskas suddenly got the call in the first quarter as Hickson remained buried on the bench. Then, seemingly for the first time since the days of James Naismith and wooden peach baskets, Daniel Gibson made an appearance when things really got desperate.

Brown has had to deal with upheaval. But he's also had a month to smooth his rotations out, and he's making things worse, not better. He's coaching himself out of a job at the moment.

Danny Ferry might be gone as well, if for no other reason than as an accompaniment to Brown's firing. His contract is up after this season and there has been no apparent progress toward an extension. Maybe Ferry wants to make sure he has a place on a lifeboat if the Cavs do indeed strike the iceberg that is now looming mere yards off the bow. Or maybe Dan Gilbert is leaving the door open to try and attract a big name such as Gregg Popovich, Larry Brown or Pat Riley to Cleveland with the promise of the combined coach and general manager's roles, and the unchallenged authority that goes along with it. Not to mention the loads of money.

Whatever the reason, if this downward trajectory continues for one more game, there is a very good chance the Cavs' power structure will look much different next season.

The roster will look much different. A month ago, I was certain that the Cavs would retain Shaq for at least one more season. Even at 38, there is no one who affects the game on a foundational level the way Shaq does. Now, I'm fairly certain that Shaq is a one-and-done failed experiment. His low-post game, once the most reliable weapon in the NBA, has been reduced to travels, off-arm push fouls and some of the ugliest hook shots you will ever see. Ironically, his foul shooting has been perhaps his biggest strength thus far in the postseason.

If the Cavs could somehow get past Boston, Shaq could actually become more of a factor against the Magic. Kendrick Perkins, with his girth and ability to prevent ideal post-up positioning, is a tougher matchup for Shaq than Dwight Howard, who is slender by comparison.

Mo Williams might find his way onto the trading block, and probably should. He's having an overall miserable series. But he's also a streaky volume shooter who has been forced into a specialist's role since the Jamison deal. He no longer fits here the way he is going to have to fit in order to be successful. The Cavs need a more traditional point guard to fill Mo's role.

But anything that might happen with Brown, Ferry, Shaq or Mo is mere deck chair shuffling compared to the questions that will surround LeBron if this is how the Cavs end their season.

For the first time in his career, LeBron is showing real weakness. He is showing what might be fatal flaws. He is playing terribly, he is submitting to the will of his opponent, he is withdrawing emotionally, and he is doing it all with a thousand-yard stare that is usually reserved for those who have seen the horrors of war.

His injured elbow excuse left the building after his Game 3 mastery. To look at what LeBron has become in this series, there is no way you can blame it all on an injured joint. This is much deeper and much more serious. What we've seen out of LeBron in this series is a lack of interest and a lack of heart. Even he doesn't seem to know what is going on. The best he can offer up is "I spoil a lot of people with my play," delivered to the media after Game 5. Basically saying, "I've been so good for so long, you should expect that at some point, I won't play well."

You'd have to think that Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant would have committed hara-kiri before they'd admit to something like that in the middle of a playoff series. Something is really wrong with LeBron, and it's going really wrong at the worst possible time -- right before he becomes the most coveted free agent in the history of professional sports.

It would be foolish to think that this series is going to cool teams on pursuing LeBron. There are too many desperate teams out there with cap space and blind faith that LeBron is all they need to become relevant again.

But there is a long road, filled with wrong turns, between relevancy and championships. Just ask the Cavs.

LeBron will make money for himself and his team, no matter where he goes, or if he chooses to re-sign with the Cavs. But LeBron's legacy as a great player will be directly tied to the number of rings he wins, and what we're seeing right now is a superstar player who has an opportunity to build his legacy as a winner, and he's letting it slip through his fingers almost willingly, met with little more than a shrug of the shoulders and a "Yeah, these things happen sometimes."

If LeBron doesn't have one foot out the door, it's entirely possible that he has one foot in the offseason. It's possible that he's not playing hard because he doesn't want to risk a major injury, or worsening his elbow, on the eve of his free agency.

It's entirely possible that LeBron's real "championship" is his next contract, and his parade is the national tour he will begin in early July, hopping from city to city so that powerful team executives can grovel at his feet.

And it's entirely possible that we're watching LeBron get broken down into his constituent elements right before our very eyes: ego, greed, vanity, hubris and emotional fragility. And playing like a champion, but only on his terms, when it best suits him.

LeBron's character is among the last things I thought I'd ever have to call into question. But it's his character that is losing this series right now. I am one loss away from never looking at LeBron the same way again.

Saturday, May 08, 2010

The fire inside

It's been long enough that we've forgotten what a later-round NBA playoff series is supposed to be about.

When is the last time a Cavs playoff series has taken us on an emotional roller coaster like this? The Celtics series two years ago? The Eastern Conference Finals against Detroit in 2007?

Last year, the Cavs crumpled up the Pistons and Hawks and threw them in the wastebasket. Then they fought uphill all the way against Orlando. They looked invincible for eight games and utterly mortal for six.

But within a series, we haven't experienced this kind of violent oscillation between elation, despair and elation for at least a couple of springs. A second-half comeback in Game 1, on the receiving end of a beatdown at home in Game 2 and dishing out a beatdown on the road in Game 3.

The net result is still positive, however. The Cavs lead the Celtics two games to one and have wrestled back the homecourt advantage they lost in Game 2. Regardless of the outcome of Sunday's Game 4, the Cavs won't come home in a desperate situation. Tuesday's Game 5 is either a pivotal game or a closeout game.

Saturday's off day was a chance to drink in everything that has happened to this point.

What have we learned about the Cavs? More importantly, what have we learned about LeBron James?

LeBron is a complicated superstar. In any given game, the Cavs are a mirror reflection of LeBron's competitive state of mind, so by extension the Cavs are a complicated team. A very good team, but complicated all the same.

He wants to write his name alongside those of Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and Kobe Bryant. But LeBron really isn't like those guys. His personality isn't the same. How he approaches challenges isn't the same. The place where he stokes his competitive fire isn't the same.

LeBron's desire to dominate and win can burn as bright as any that has burned inside an NBA superstar. But unlike the internal conflagrations of Jordan, Bryant and Bird, who are generally regarded as the three of the most cutthroat competitors to ever play basketball, LeBron's fire inside doesn't start on the inside.

LeBron doesn't have a gland from which acid wells and rage radiates. He doesn't have a gland that automatically makes his blood run reptilian cold at the fourth-quarter, Game 7 hour of reckoning.

He is, by most accounts, a pretty nice guy. His default setting is to shake hands and hug opponents before the game. He's tried to rein that in a bit over time. Even so, it's fine to be diplomatic, even friendly, no matter if it chafes those of us in the armchair quarterback brigade who are waiting on the Jordanification of LeBron. Because that's a transformation that will never come without a brain transplant.

LeBron needs outside adversity to trigger his seek-and-destroy response. He has to endure embarrassments like the Game 2 debacle. He has to sit back and stew over it for a couple of days, listen to the doubters, listen to those who would say that LeBron has finally met his personal kryptonite, and it's an elbow boo-boo.

What he can't manufacture from within, at least to the level of a Jordan or Bryant, he can distill from the words of the detractors who are getting set to carve his team's epitaph in solid granite, two games into a series.

Three days of criticism and preparation later, the Celtics got a fully-fuming LeBron who, for the first time all series, relentlessly attacked the basket, forcing Boston's frontcourt into head-on collisions and fouls. When the Celtics tried to pack the paint, LeBron shot over them. His teammates fed off the energy, as Antawn Jamison and Delonte West had solid games, and Shaq finally looked serviceable.

The elbow? It didn't stop LeBron from 38 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. Which could lead many of us to believe that the tentative play from Games 1 and 2 was more the result of not getting mad enough, as opposed to an effort to protect his sore wing.

This momentum pendulum will continue to swing back and forth. Boston is now the team that is stewing. They will make adjustments for Game 4, and if LeBron and his teammates aren't ready to respond, the Celtics will likely tie the series. If the Cavs are able to keep attacking, Game 5 could be the gateway to a third conference finals appearance in four years.

It will hinge on LeBron and how vicious he wants to be, which will likely be the direct result of how much he is provoked. Hopefully it won't take repeated embarrassing losses to keep LeBron's internal fire stoked at a championship temperature.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Anatomy of a slump

If you've gotten through the last three Cavaliers game without suffering a complete loss of composure, I applaud you.

The Cavs' first three-game losing streak since early 2008 was everything that we fear about the future of the season, wrapped up in one neat, four-day package. Three losses against playoff teams --- two against title contenders -- in which you had to wonder, even for a split second, if it had been wise move to send Zydrunas Ilgauskas away for Antawn Jamison in the middle of the season. The last three games looked, in part, like the product of messing with a good thing.

The streak consisted of losses against Denver, Charlotte and Orlando -- three teams the Cavs could face in the postseason. They're virtually guaranteed of facing at least one. The Nuggets' overtime win at The Q was the Cavs' first home loss since just after the new year, and completely a season sweep of the Cavs. Friday, the Bobcats handled the Cavs for a third straight game. They're undefeated against Cleveland since acquiring Stephen Jackson earlier this season.

Sunday, it was deja vu in Orlando. In a re-enactment of last season's Eastern Conference Finals, the Magic won all the fourth-quarter battles, Dwight Howard put all of the Cavs' big men in foul trouble, Mo Williams played terribly and the Cavs lost in central Florida yet again.

So what gives? Why does the pre-all star break juggernaut suddenly look overrated, overinflated and ripe for the taking post-all star break?

As is usually the case when things go awry, it's an onion, and we have to peel back the layers.

1. The trade did mess things up, at least short-term

Whether or not you want to believe that a cloud of bad karma now hangs over the Cavs organization for ending a 14-year relationship with Z, the fact remains that the trade removed a rotation player and replaced him with another rotation player in Jamison, who will likely be starting at some point this week.

Though Jamison brings an inside-outside game to the power forward spot -- something that could be very useful come playoff time -- to get him, the Cavs had to disrupt the delicate balance at the center spot. Shaq and Z worked as a tandem because they took some of the load off of each other's aging legs. With Z gone, Anderson Varejao becomes the full-time backup center. His offensive game most closely resembles that of a center, but his defensive game is more of a power forward's, as he flies around the wings and paint bothering whoever has the ball. He's not always going to stay in the post and defend the rim, in other words.

As the center spot thins out, the power forward spot is about to become very crowded as Leon Powe gets set to return, maybe as early as this week. Jamison, Powe and J.J. Hickson can only play the four-spot in most lineups. Jamison is going to get his minutes, which means Mike Brown has some potientially difficult decisions to make dividing up the remainder of the minutes.

Stepping off the court, the locker room needs time to adjust as well. Though Z and Jamison are both team-first players, the Cavs still lost a locker room mainstay and have replaced him with a guy who is trying to learn the ins and outs of the Cavs' team culture. Every team is a little different, and Jamison is trying to get used to sharing the locker room with dominant personalities like LeBron and Shaq, Delonte West's quirky sense of humor, and so forth.

Ironically, in the extremely short term, Amar'e Stoudemire might have made an easier transition than Jamison. Stoudemire is a freelancer. He takes the ball and scores in isolation. There isn't a lot to negotiate there as long as Stoudemire is allowed to get the ball where he wants it. Jamison, on the other hand, because he's a team-oriented player with a broader skill set, has a lot more adjusting to do when he arrives on a new team.

2. A slump was bound to happen sooner or later

If a winning streak goes on long enough, a team is going to grow a little complacent. It's human nature. If you're not challenged for a while, you tend to go on auto pilot.

The Cavs tied a team record with 13 straight wins heading into the all-star break. You can't entirely accuse them of zoning out, because they did have emotional wins over the Lakers and Magic in that stretch. But after watching the Cavs extensively over the past two years, I've noticed that the longer the Cavs go without a gut-check moment, the harder it's going to hit them when it does come.

Last season, the Cavs went 8-0 through the first two rounds of the playoffs. They won each game against Detroit and Atlanta by double digits. They made it look really, really easy. Too easy.

Then came their second nine-day layoff of the postseason, as they waited while the Celtics and Magic went seven games in the other conference semifinal series. Then came the deflating Game 1 loss against Orlando. The Cavs were reeling and searching for answers from that point forward.

The same thing kind of happened over the past week. A long layoff, plus a major trade, plus a deflating loss to Denver coming off of the all-star break. But at least it's still February and the Cavs still have a sizable lead in the conference. If your gut check comes with 25 games to play in the regular season, you still have time to get back to the drawing board and figure things out. If the gut check comes in late May, you're in trouble.

3. They need practice time

Monday is the first time since the Jamison deal that the Cavs could get into Cleveland Clinic Courts and have a nice, long practice. Long, full-speed practices are where the major sanding and polishing happens. It's where players get to know each other's games and coaches define roles. Then you can bond at the whirlpool/ice tubs afterward.

With a inconveniently-timed road trip that began 24 hours after the all-star break, the Cavs have been surviving on light practice and shootarounds since the trade. Shootarounds are maintenance. Full-speed practices are constructive and cathartic after a rough stretch.

4. Admittedly, the Cavs have simply played some tough teams

The Cavs might have been on a three-game losing streak even without the disruption of the all-star break or the trade.

Denver, Charlotte and Orlando are all tough tests for the Cavs. The Nuggets have two killer scorers in Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups, enough size to bang with the Cavs down low and some good shooters on the wings.

The Bobcats are a riddle. They have some size and athleticism, but they don't possess any vexing matchup problems for a team like Cleveland. It doesn't really seem like they should give the Cavs so many problems, but Jackson, Gerald Wallace and Ray Felton seem to feast every time the see wine and gold.

The Bobcats do have some advantages against Cleveland: Jackson is one of the few players in the league capable of checking LeBron (maybe the best LBJ defender in the league at this point) and with new acquisitions Theo Ratliff and Tyrus Thomas added to a big man corps that already included Nazr Mohammed and Tyson Chandler, the Bobcats can defend Shaq with volume if not skill.

But when it comes down to watching Charlotte push themselves over the top thanks to the shooting of Felton and D.J. Augustin, it's mind-numbingly frustrating.

Orlando is a known quantity. As much as ESPN's John Hollinger might like to debate over whether anything has really changed between the Cavs and Magic from last year to this year, we still generally know where things stand.

Shaq will always play Howard tough as long as his body allows. Jamison has an extensive history of playing well against the Magic, and playing good defense on Rashard Lewis. Switches won't find Delonte on Hedo Turkoglu anymore. Vince Carter still has a career's worth of evidence that says he will seldom outplay LeBron James in the fourth quarter of a head-to-head matchup -- as happened on Sunday.

It would be wise to assume that Mo will continue to not play well against Orlando, for whatever reason. His shots just don't seem to fall when he sees the Magic. Which makes Jamison's ability to replace Mo's usual 17 to 18 points per game all the more important.

That is perhaps the most compelling argument in favor of the Jamison trade, even if it means struggling in the short term.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Right move, right time

Antawn Jamison isn't Amare Stoudemire. He's not a prime-of-career superstar who could team up with LeBron James to rule the NBA for the next seven years.

Jamison is 33. He's under contract until the age of 36. By then, even a guy who has aged as gracefully as Jamison will likely start to show wear on his treads.

He's on the back nine of his career, his contract isn't the most flexible, he doesn't possess mind-blowing athleticism, and at 6'-8" he's a little undersized for an NBA power forward.

That's pretty much everything negative you can say about Jamison, wrapped up in three short paragraphs.

Perhaps that's the most amazing thing about the Cavs' deadline prize, acquired late Wednesday in a three team trade with the Wizards and Clippers. The Cavs acquired Jamison and Sebastian Telfair in a deal that cost them Zydrunas Ilgauskas, sent to Washington, and their 2010 first-round draft pick, sent to the Clippers.

If there is no such thing as a perfect trade, Danny Ferry just came darn close in acquiring Jamison. It's the right trade at the right time for the Cavs and for Jamison.

A Stoudemire trade would have been filled with intrigue, a couple large forkfuls of risk and a whole lot of water cooler debate over whether Stoudemire could fit with the Cavs, or whether he would sign an extension this summer, or whether he could be re-molded into at least a competent defender.

Whereas the prospect of a Stoudemire trade was spicy salsa to Cavs fans, the Jamison deal is comparative steak and potatoes. Tried and true sustenance from one of the league's rock-solid players.

And if you're the Cavs and talking NBA title this June, that's exactly what you need. A Stoudemire trade might have passed with flying colors, but more likely in the longer term as Stoudemire spent the next how-many-ever months getting deprogrammed of his offense addiction by Mike Brown and his staff, and re-programmed with a mentality that values defense and setting up teammates.

There probably would have been some friction and bumps in the road, at the very least.

With Jamison, there is no rolling of the dice from a basketball standpoint. As an outside-shooting power forward, he is just what the Cavs need to open up operating space for Shaq and LeBron inside. As a wide, muscular post player, he can get his shot off with his back to the hoop, box out with authority and defend bigger forwards. As a locker-room leader who is widely regarded by coaches, players and media members as one of the true class acts of the league, he brings none of the selfishness and maturity issues that might have been present wth Amare.

And what does Jamison get out of the deal? His best shot at a ring. Jamison has shown an ability to self-motivate and seize the moment in years past.

Keep in mind that Jamison was the guy who played purely on pride against the Cavs in the 2007 playoffs. With Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler on the shelf with injuries, it was Jamison who kept fighting over the course of a four-game Cleveland sweep, which must have seeemed like a hopeless proposition at times. But Jamison still showed up to work with his hardhat on, averaging 32 points and nearly 10 rebounds in the four games.

Jamison brings the Cavs their most talented presence at the big forward spot since Carlos Boozer spent his first two NBA years here before taking the back door out of Cleveland. It's a hole the Cavs have struggled to fill with everyone from Drew Gooden to Donyell Marshall to Anderson Varejao to J.J. Hickson. The latter two will now back Jamison up.

Oh yeah, did I mention that the Cavs didn't have to part with Hickson in the deal? Over the past week, there has been much hand-wringing by fans on message boards over the wisdom of giving up Hickson, who has started to show promise over the past month. Both Phoenix and Washington originally demanded Hickson from the Cavs. But Wednesday, Washington backed off their Hickson demands, and the Cavs managed to make a deal without involving their best youngster.

Even though the Cavs dodged having to part with Hickson, the trade did come with a price. The Plain Dealer's Brian Windhorst reported late Wednesday that the mood around team headquarters was rather bittersweet. The Cavs finally landed a player they had been coveting for quite some time, but in the process, had to ship away the longest-tenured Cav in Ilgauskas.

Ilgauskas could -- and likely will -- request a buyout of the remainder of his expiring contract from the Wizards. It's hard to imagine that he'll finish the season anywhere but Cleveland, but it's now out of the Cavs' hands. Z and his agent have to negotiate a buyout, and begin entertaining offers. He can return to the Cavs 30 days after completing the buyout, but in the interim, he's a free agent, and if for some reason he sees fit to sign elsewhere, the Cavs can't stop him.

But sentimentality can't rule trade talks. The Cavs felt they needed the upgrade that Jamison provides, and Z -- now little more than a backup center -- was worth the price.

Hopefully Z comes back. But in the event he doesn't, the price was still right. So many times, teams hit the trade market trying to find the right match, scrambling to make the pieces fit, mixing together odd-tasting three-team concoctions in the quest to find the right pieces to the puzzle.

In the Cavs' case, there was no guesswork when the team decided to focus squarely on Jamison. He is a hand-glove fit for what the Cavs are trying to accomplish, and it just so happened that the Cavs had the large expiring contract that the soon-to-be rebuilding Wizards wanted in return.

It's the third time in as many years that Ferry found the right match for his expiring contracts. He acquired Mo Williams in much the same way in the summer of 2008, and Shaq last summer.

If the Jamison deal works out like those deals, the Cavs have to be considered the favorites to win their first NBA title in franchise history this June.

Sunday, February 14, 2010

To Amar'e, or not to Amar'e?

In the past, whenever I've written an analysis column about a developing situation, the situation invariably reaches an outcome shortly thereafter, rendering the column stale.

So if by the time you read this, Amar'e Stoudemire is a Cav, you're welcome. If by the time you read this, Stoudemire is a Sixer or making his way to South Beach to join the Heat, my apologies. But chances are, something is going to happen soon, climactic or anticlimactic.

Here's what we know as of Sunday evening: The Cavs have a strong interest in Stoudemire. Danny Ferry has been in hot pursuit of the Suns forward since Friday. On Saturday, a deal looked to be imminent, per multiple media sources. On Sunday, things cooled a bit. The Cavs are still very much in the thick of the Stoudemire discussions, but it looks like Philadelphia is among the other teams that could make a play for Stoudemire. Miami is also on the radar, but might not have the ammo to get a deal done without involving a third team, which is often a difficult trick to pull off.

The Cavs' interest in Stoudemire appears to be legitimate, but the highly-publicized flirting might also have something to do with forcing the Wizards' collective hand on the Antawn Jamison front. Washington completed a seven-player trade with the Mavericks on Saturday, shipping off the large contract of Caron Butler in the process. In jettisoning Butler, the Wizards might have created enough salary relief to retain Jamison, or they might have run the white flag up the pole in preparation for a complete implosion or rebuild. That's for the Wizards to know and for us to maybe find out at some point.

What we do know is that while the Wizards sport a poker face, the Suns are addressing all suitors for Stoudemire. And because of that, the likelihood of a Stoudemire trade is growing while the likelihood of a Jamison trade stagnates.

The Suns are kind of past the point of no return with Stoudemire. Whether by design or not, they've negotiated his departure from Phoenix in public for the past several days. It sends Stoudemire's camp a powerful message that Suns management is convinced that they can't re-sign the five-time all-star, and that they're determined to get something of value for him before he can opt out of his contract this summer and potentially leave as a free agent.

Once you've gone down that road as a team, it's very difficult to pull back and mend fences. The Suns are putting themselves in a position where they're almost forced to deal Stoudemire by Thursday's deadline.

That works in favor of the Cavs and other teams in pursuit of Stoudemire. As opposed to having no pressure to deal Stoudemire, the Suns appear to find themselves under a great deal of pressure to make a deal happen. The Suns have essentially gone from seller to buyer.

What are the Cavs selling? Reportedly, J.J. Hickson and the expiring contract of Zydrunas Ilgauskas. There is reason to believe that other teams, particularly the Sixers, might be able to put together a more attractive offer from a talent standpoint, but the Cavs' offer might represent the tastiest bait for the Suns for two reasons:

First, Z's contract would offer Phoenix the chance to get under the luxury tax threshold -- a savings of around $10 million, according to The Plain Dealer's Brian Windhorst. The Suns could --- and probably would -- buy Z out, getting that money off the books sooner rather than later.

Second, if you were in the Suns' shoes and looking for a younger, cheaper Stoudemire to groom for the future, Hickson would fit the bill. At about 6'-9" Hickson isn't nearly as tall as Stoudemire, and his ceiling isn't as high, but they play largely the same game around the basket. And Hickson's midrange jumper has tons of room to improve in the coming years, much like Stoudemire's has. In the Suns' uptempo offense, the offensively-talented Hickson could grow into a key piece of Phoenix's future.

If Ferry can turn this trade from a hot rumor into reality, it would represent his BlackBerry magnum opus. Bigger than the lopsided Mo Williams and Shaquille O'Neal trades. Bigger than the six-players-out, four-players-in face lift of the February before last. Because this would be the long-sought, prime-of-career superstar brought on board specifically to give LeBron James a superstar-caliber running mate and, by extension, a reason to commit to the Cavs long term this summer.

Of course, Stoudemire would have to agree to an extension himself in order to make the grand plan truly take root. But the Cavs would hold Stoudemire's Larry Bird rights and, as a result, be able to offer Stoudemire the max contract he seeks, above what any other team can offer. The same rules that apply to the Cavs with LeBron.

Odds are very good that bringing Stoudemire into the fold would increase the Cavs' competitive standing both during the season and the offseason in the coming years. That's important, but you can argue that's not the most important issue at hand right this minute.

The most important issue is the spring of 2010, and whether the Cavs can win the NBA title. At the all-star break, the Cavs sit atop the NBA wth a 43-11 record and a franchise record-tying 13 game winning streak. They're a combined 4-0 against the Lakers and Magic -- the two teams that tormented them a year ago.

It's hard to imagine things going much better for the Cavs than they are right now. It would be anywhere between reckless and crazy to mess with the team's mojo.

Yet, adding Stoudemire could do just that. On one hand, Stoudemire is a more talented and athletic version of Hickson, so it's not like Mike Brown would have to completely retrofit the offense to accommodate Stoudemire. He'd be catching the ball while move toward the basket, taking quick dishes from LeBron for dunks and, in general, having his job made a whole lot easier surrounded by Shaq and LeBron -- two of the best passers in the game at their positions.

That's in theory. And the theory assumes that Stoudemire is content with living off of whatever the other four guys on the court give him. For a superstar used to receiving a lot of touches and scoring 20 points per game -- and playing for a contract to boot -- the theory might run into some problems when put into practice.

If Stoudemire is content with a drop in shot volume for the remainder of the season, if he's willing to be a team player and sacrifice some of his face time for a shot at a ring, the Cavs could become a historic juggernaut, armed with one of the greatest frontcourts in the history of the NBA. They could level the rest of the league like an atom bomb, burn through the playoffs like a time-release napalm canister and make those of us at the victory parade wonder why it took 46 years to win a title.

If Stoudemire is more concerned with his stat line and how many zeroes he can expect on his next contract, he could just as easily become a selfish, destructive, ball-hogging, shot-forcing dissenter who could make you pine for the days of Hickson starting at power forward.

It's the definition of high-risk, high-reward. The Cavs want to deliver the bold brushstroke that makes a compelling closing argument to LeBron. But at the same time, no argument could be more compelling than holding the Larry O'Brien Trophy aloft on Public Square this June. That's the cinch-lock case for not making any move that could potentially hinder the Cavs' chances of winning a title this year.

No player, no coach and no executive can guarantee a championship outright. Everyone plays a hand, but in most cases, the talent, coaching and front office brains are raw materials. Championships are won by circumstances. Players stay healthy and accept their roles, coaches adapt and lead effectively, and maybe there are some more fortuitous bounces along the way.

The dominance the Cavs are demonstrating right now can't be guaranteed year to year. Doing anything to harm this team's ability to win a championship this year is downright criminal. But leaving a legitimate superstar like Stoudemire on the table because you fear a negative outcome is reckless, crazy and criminal, too.

This is why Danny Ferry makes the big bucks. To lose sleep over this very conundrum. I'm glad he's the one making the call, and I'm glad I'm not in his shoes right now.

Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Shaq Comes Alive

Shaquille O'Neal's first two months in a Cavaliers uniform required a big-picture definition of success.

If you were to believe that the soon-to-be 38 year old man-mountain was going to help the Cavs win a title, you had to believe in what he could give the team in the long run. Because on a night to night basis, he looked like a fading star whose time had come and gone.

You had to pin your hopes on his ability to rise to the occasion against marquee opponents, such as the work he did in battling Dwight Howard to a draw in the Cavs' cathartic November victory in Orlando. Or his 11 point, 7 rebound showing in the Cavs' Christmas Day drubbing of the Lakers in Los Angeles.

You had to try and remind yourself that the ultimate measuring stick of Danny Ferry's decision to trade for Shaq last June will be in Shaq's effectiveness against the likes of the Lakers, Celtics and Magic. And that verdict won't be rendered until late spring.

How he plays against the Memphis Grizzlies in December? That's pretty much irrelevant, you had to convince yourself. Shaq only has so much gas left in the tank, and he needs to save it for when it really matters. If he coasts through some of the less-competitive parts of the schedule, it is still worth it if he's neutralizing the frontcourts of other contenders in late May and June.

That line of thinking is entirely rooted in logic. Ferry didn't trade for Shaq to beat the Grizzlies, Knicks or Bulls. The Cavs prior to Shaq's arrival could do that just fine. They needed Shaq to neutralize the matchup disadvantages that caused them to go a combined 3-8 against the Magic and Lakers last season, including playoffs.

As the mediocre Shaq showings piled on top of each other, you had to cling to that ideal. It's not about minutes, points or rebounds -- Shaq is on pace for career lows in all three categories -- it's about stuffing Howard in the lane, about not letting Pau Gasol receive the ball wherever he wants it. It's about doing the things that don't necessarily show up in Shaq's stat line, but will definitely show up in the stat lines of opposing big men, in the form of smaller numbers.

And yet, even if you succeeded in maintaining that big-picture line of thinking, there was this persistent, bugging thought gnawing at the base of your brain as the 2009 portion of the schedule progressed.

Shaq really didn't look good out there. He looked out of sync. He looked uncomfortable in his role as a defensive enforcer first, rebounder second and low post scorer third.

He looked a little out of condition, like his summer reality series, "Shaq Vs.," really wasn't the new spin on offseason conditioning that he thought it would be. He was playing 21 minutes a night, and looked as if stretching to 26 minutes would require the postgame use of an oxygen mask and wheelchair.

Even with a reduced offensive role, Shaq still needed some touches in the post, and every time the ball went inside to Shaq, it turned the Cavs offense on its ear. The Cavs won 66 games last season by using smaller lineups and playing to LeBron's strengths -- incredible speed and power. The Cavs were at their best when they could play fast, penetrate to the basket and create open looks for jump shooters.

Accommodating Shaq means slowing all of that down, and giving him a chance to dig his toes in on the left block. Mike Brown was sort of stuck in limbo, not wanting to abandon the high-velocity approach that made the Cavs an unstoppable juggernaut against 27 of 29 teams last year. But he also knew that in order to make the Shaq experiment work, he needed to get the big guy involved.

The net result was Shaq received some touches in his low-post comfort zone, but not a lot of them. To his credit and in a reversal of his attitude at other career stops, Shaq never once uttered a word of public complaint. His steadfast motto was "Witness Protection." Whatever he needed to do to enable LeBron to win games, that's what he said he wanted to do.

But it harmed his game. His shots fell flat. He jumped like he was bolted to the ground. Younger, quicker opponents routinely smacked the ball out of his hands. Missing games early in the season with a shoulder injury didn't help matters.

His season reached its nadir in back-to-back losses at Memphis and Houston in early December. Against Memphis, he was abused by Ohio State product Mike Conley on a pick and roll that led to the Grizzlies' game-winning basket in overtime. The next night, Chuck Hayes, a 6'-6" center-in-name-only, outplayed Shaq the whole time the two shared the floor.

The red flags were up. Knowledgeable basketball people e-mailed Brian Windhorst, Cavs beat reporter for The Plain Dealer, declaring the death of Shaq's career. It was hard to argue the evidence, even if you were dead-set on evaluating Shaq based solely on how he played against other contenders.

Luckily, the regular season lasts five and a half months, not two months.

Looking back, his effort against the Lakers on Christmas Day was something of a turning point. It's happened gradually, but Shaq is back to being Shaq. A late-30s Shaq, but definitely Shaq.

In the game following the Christmas beatdown of the Lakers, Shaq atoned for his performance in Houston by registering his fourth Cavs double-double in the rematch with the Rockets at The Q. That in and of itself wasn't noteworthy, but it was back-to-back productive games. It was a start.

The production was still kind of sporadic, but he managed a 17-point effort against Washington in early January. Four days later, in Portland, he compiled his best all-around effort: 11 points, 11 rebounds, 5 assists and a big lip-smacker on actor Daniel Baldwin, who was sitting behind the basket when Shaq came tumbling his way.

The good games were becoming more frequent for Shaq. As important, he looked like he was beginning to enjoy his role and fit into the Cavs' scheme.

But Shaq didn't truly become a load-bearing wall for the Cavs until January 19. Since then, he's really flourished.

Jan. 19 is when Mo Williams sprained his shoulder against the Raptors. Along with the gut-check knowledge that the Cavs' second-best scorer could be on the shelf until March, Brown was also faced with the question of how to replace Mo's offense.

In past years, Mo's production would have been replaced piecemeal-style. LeBron would take more shots, Delonte West would take more shots, and the bench would need to step up and assume more minutes and shots.

This season, the safety net weighs a conservatively-estimated 325 pounds. Which is good, because Delonte went to the sideline with a broken finger in the very next game, removing even more scoring from the floor.

Though Brown certainly didn't consider it an ideal situation to ramp up Shaq's touches and minutes so suddenly, and with two and a half months of regular season still left to play, his hand was forced. Shaq would get the ball on the block and take more shots.

The 15-time all-star, four-time NBA champion and future hall of famer responded like you'd expect a 15-time all-star, four-time NBA champion and future hall of famer to respond: he stopped fooling around, focused on the task at hand and has been getting the job done.

Over the past week, Shaq has been playing his best ball as a Cav. He scored 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting against Indiana, and followed that with 16 points and 12 boards against the Clippers, and 13 points and a season-high 13 boards in the rematch against the Grizzlies, a runaway Cavs win.

This is how Shaq, and the Cavs, will need to play in the later playoff rounds if they're to have a realistic shot at the franchise's first NBA title. Even though Shaq is playing more than Ferry or Brown would prefer, it's comforting to know that Shaq Diesel was still in the garage and functional while Shaq Lemon was rattling and clunking through the early stages of the season.

And it's relieving to know that the Cavs are learning how to play, dominate and win with Shaq as a focal point of both the offense and defense.

Maybe how Shaq plays against the Grizzlies in the dead of winter does count for something after all.