The waiting is the hardest part

Cavaliers fans have been anxiously anticipating the moves of Danny Ferry this summer like small children who can't fall asleep on Christmas Eve.

The Cavs are flying heavy with about $30 million in expiring contracts. LeBron James strongly hinted at the end of the Cavs-Celtics playoff series that he'd like to see some kind of improvements made to the team.

That's all the spurring our San Antonio-groomed general manager should need, right? It's all a matter of going out and waving some tantalizing expiring contracts under the nose of a team with a superstar or two in need of a rebuild, and LeBron will officially have his Pippen, and we can start planning that NBA championship parade to Public Square for next June.

Well, it's mid-July, the draft is past tense, the NBA's free agency period has been underway for a couple of weeks now, and all the big names available have pretty much changed addresses already, to places other than Cleveland.

Richard Jefferson is in Milwaukee, which can be taken as a strong indicator that Michael Redd isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Baron Davis is a Clipper, Corey Maggette is a Warrior, Elton Brand is a Sixer and Cavs front-office favorite Mickael Pietrus jumped to Orlando.

Ferry made a play for James Posey, the battle-tested swingman who played such an important role in allowing the Celtics to hold off the Cavs this spring, but ultimately finished second to the Hornets.

So far, the only basketball news of the summer in Cleveland is that first round pick J.J. Hickson dropped 26 points and nine boards in his summer league debut, and on Wednesday, Daniel Gibson completed the formality of agreeing to a five-year, $20 million contract. Like he was going anywhere. He's affordable and the Cavs' best shooter. His re-signing was as close to a foregone conclusion as you are going to find in the world of restricted free agency.

As much as you might still be crossing your fingers and hoping against all hope that Ferry does something, anything, to improve the Cavs' chances at unseating the Celtics as the league's champs next spring, you will likely be forced to admit that you see the giant letters known commonly as the "handwriting on the wall."

When Danny Ferry says he likes the makeup of this roster, he means he likes the makeup of this roster. You might disagree, but Ferry's opinion is what matters. In other words, once the Delonte West contract situation is resolved one way or the other, that's probably going to bring the curtain down on the offseason as far as major moves are concerned.

West's restricted free agency and contract negotiations -- which might turn out to be noticeably more suspenseful than Gibson's -- is the only real drama left to play out for the Cavs before training camp opens. If the Cavs do make a headline-grabbing move, the guess is it will be to acquire a point guard because negotiations with West have stalled out, or West is about to sign an offer sheet that Ferry has no interest in matching. But if I were a betting man, I'd still place my chips on the side that says the Cavs and West will hammer out a deal before camp starts.

Other than that, there might be a few minor tweaks. The Cavs will probably use a portion of their midlevel exception to sign one or two Devin Brown types, and there is a chance that Damon Jones, who spent most of the playoffs rotting on the bench, will be dealt, but the early edition of the 2008-09 Cavs will probably look suspiciously similar to the Cavs squad that was knocked out by the Celtics.

Is it playing with fire to stand pat when LeBron's potential free agency looms a mere 24 months from now? Well, no matter what Ferry does or does not do, it's a roll of the dice. Stand pat, and other teams -- like the Celtics -- might seize the opportunity and blast right by you. Make aggressive moves, and you could end up in salary cap hell, riveted to a bunch of lousy deals doled out to aging players.

If a team is willing to deal one of their stars for expiring contracts, it's normally because that star player is signed to a gargantuan deal and the trading team wants to get out from under the contract. Those kinds of deals look attractive in the short term, but can absolutely kill the long term flexibility of the team receiving the star player. It's generally a bad idea to make short term deals for long term contracts, particularly if the player you acquire has or will soon reach the big 3-0.

With all that in mind, if Ferry stands pat and makes no major moves for the remainder of the offseason, here is what he's banking on:

1. Familiarity will make last February's blockbuster look better.

The deal that brought West, Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak and Joe Smith to town didn't have the shot-in-the-arm effect that everyone was hoping for. The revamped Cavs accomplished what the Larry Hughes-Donyell Marshall group likely would have: 45 wins and a second-round exit.

Now this group will come to camp with a playoff run under their belts and the knowledge that they'll have an entire season together to learn each other's games and learn Mike Brown's schemes. This is probably better than a 45-win team, but injuries and upheaval took their toll. Ferry probably wants to give the current roster time to jell before he starts changing more pieces in and out.

2. Boston will come back to Earth, at least a little bit.

After watching the Cavs, without homecourt advantage, give the Celtics everything they could handle short of an upset, Ferry is probably pretty confident that this Cavs team can take out anyone in the East in a seven game series. The Celtics stayed remarkably healthy last year for a team built around a core of 30-somethings, they played with a determination to win not seen in the league since the heyday of Michael Jordan, and they had a cast of reliable role players fronted by Posey.

The injury bug might bite Boston a bit harder this year, and even if it doesn't, it's hard to imagine the Celtics spending themselves to win 60-plus regular season games again next season without suffering dire consequences in the playoffs. To top it off, Posey is gone, eliminating a huge thorn in the Cavs' side from this spring's playoffs.

The East is always subject to change. The Magic continue to get stronger, but won't ever pose a threat to win the conference until Dwight Howard can perform at the level of LeBron and Kevin Garnett in the playoffs. The Sixers added a major piece in Brand, but he's coming back from an Achilles' tendon injury and, even if he's healthy, Philadelphia's roster still has some large holes.

Detroit could come out of nowhere and deal for Tracy McGrady. But if that kind of fairy tale wheeling and dealing doesn't happen, Ferry likely believes that his team, as presently constructed, can get back to the NBA Finals and maybe win it.

3. Some teams that think they have a shot at winning could be singing a different tune in February (I'm looking at you, Milwaukee).

Right now is a time for optimism. Right now, Bucks fans are ecstatic that Jefferson and Redd will team up on a playoff run. Right now, the Hawks are one of the rising young teams in the East, as are the Sixers. Right now, the Nets are apparently content to build around Vince Carter. Right now, the Bobcats, with Larry Brown calling the shots, are poised to possibly make a run at their first playoff berth.

Chances are, one or more of those dreams will be shattered by the time the trading deadline is in sight, and Ferry might have a better chances of gleaning one of the above mentioned players at that point.

As we sit and watch the summer progress, some fans are sharpening their Ferry-shredding instruments, waiting to pounce if the leaves start turning and the Cavs don't have a second perennial all-star in camp. Start shredding now if that's the case, because despite what the one-in-a-million story of the 2008 Boston Celtics might tell you, the other 99 percent of the time, good things come to those who wait.

The essential all-stars

The Indians don't have the largest contingent at Yankee Stadium for this week's all star festivities. But the two players they did send should arrive and depart packed in egg crates.

All star week is a who's who of valuable players. The rosters are overflowing with team home run leaders, RBI leaders, strikeout leaders and shutout leaders. But few teams have more riding on their all stars than the Indians do on Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore.

Lee and Sizemore are both having great seasons. The particularly obsessive fans can pick apart their performances, nitpick Sizemore's underwhelming .273 batting average in relation to the rest of his stats, fret over Lee's tendency to lose command of his stuff for an inning or two, but for the sweeping generalization needed to pack this judgment into one paragraph, we can say Lee and Sizemore are having great seasons.

In New York, the Tribe's dynamic duo is in good company. Once the season resumes in Seattle on Friday and the pair are once again surrounded by their struggling last-place teammates, greatness will be a lonely pursuit.

It is possible that the Indians, a team that appears destined for 90 losses, could still tout the AL's home run king and a second straight Cy Young Award winner after the season.

The pessimist would call it a waste of two perfectly good seasons by a bumbling organization. The optimist would call it proof positive of better things to come. The realist would probably say that if the Indians want to have better seasons in the future, they need Sizemore and Lee to produce like this every year. That's a lot of weight to put on the slight shoulders of two of the Tribe's skinniest players, but when you consider the uncertainty swirling around the rest of the team, Sizemore and Lee comprise the closest thing the Indians might have to a bedrock foundation for '09.

When two players are having seasons like Sizemore's and Lee's, and it still isn't enough to counterbalance the sheer volume of injuries and underachievement on the rest of the roster, it's not exactly a glowing recommendation for the other 23 guys. Of course, as badly as things have gone for the Indians this season, we could reasonably expect some players to bounce back in '09. Baseball is all about giving the law of averages every chance to take effect, after all.

But a quick glance at the rest of the roster reveals a relative sliver of certainty and a whole heaping helping of question marks for next season.

Victor Martinez is recovering from elbow surgery. He was hitting for average for the first couple of months of the season. We can reasonably expect him to bounce back. He's been with the team long enough that we know what to expect from him. Outside of Lee and Sizemore, Martinez might be the only close-to-sure thing Mark Shapiro can offer up for 2009 without making some significant moves this offseason.

Travis Hafner is recovering from an injured shoulder, but he hasn't been right at the plate in over a calendar year. Ryan Garko shows flashes of his 2007 form, then regresses into a pull-happy hacker. Johnny Peralta is producing in the cleanup spot, but this is his fourth season in the bigs, and inconsistency is the name of the game with him.

Casey Blake will likely be gone at the end of the year, if not sooner. Franklin Gutierrez will probably never hit for a high enough average to be an everyday player in Cleveland. The sample sizes of Ben Francisco, Shin-Soo Choo and Andy Marte are still too small to accurately gauge their long-term impact. Regardless, none of them project as heart-of-the-order hitters.

In the rotation, Fausto Carmona has a stellar '07 season sandwiched in between a disastrous '06 closer experiment and an injury-plagued '08 campaign. Right now, his career could go any one of a number of directions. Jake Westbrook is recovering from major elbow surgery and is effectively lost as a front-of-the-rotation starter until 2010. Aaron Laffey is in the same boat as Francisco and Choo -- promising, but way too young to proclaim a core player moving forward. Jeremy Sowers needs pinpoint control and excellent command to be effective, and so far, he's had neither.

When you consider all of the above, it's apparent that the Indians have a large portion of both their present and future on display at Yankee Stadium this week.

While it's fantastic to see Sizemore compete in the Home Run Derby as a prelude to appearing in Tuesday's All-Star Game, while it's a thrill to see Lee named the Tribe's first All-Star starting pitcher since Charles Nagy in 1996, the glow will dim noticeably once the grind of the season starts up again and you realize there might not be much more to smile about when it comes to the Indians, this year or next -- or at least until Matt LaPorta makes his already-highly-anticipated big league debut, which might still be a year or more away.

For now, Lee and Sizemore are the genuine article, producing at a high level and bringing positive attention to the Indians during this mostly-miserable season. Others might join them later this year and next year, but anyone else in the Indians organization is saddled with that two-letter blanket qualifier, "if."

If Travis Hafner returns to form... If Victor Martinez can start hitting for power again... If Fausto Carmona doesn't suffer any setbacks...

If Andy Marte earns his keep at third base... If Ben Francisco continues to hit... If Mark Shapiro can ever find a long-term solution for the closer's role...

Lee and Sizemore are the only two Indians who don't need "if" right now. That alone makes the Tribe's two representatives in the Bronx this week worth their weight in gold.

A trail of tears

Legendary Brooklyn Dodgers general manager Branch Rickey once said that a baseball team in any city is quasi-public institution, but the Dodgers were public without the quasi.

When a city loses a public institution, the ripple effects can last for years. Few cities took it on the chin harder than New York, which lost both its National League teams in the same offseason prior to 1958. The Dodgers and Giants, both staples of New York summers dating to the 19th Century, packed up and moved to the West Coast.

After 1957, Ebbets Field never saw big league baseball again. It was knocked down a few years later. The Polo Grouds, the Giants' oddly-shaped landmark of a park in extreme northern Manhattan, remained vacant until the Mets moved in for the 1962 season. By 1964, however, the Mets had moved to Shea Stadium and the Polo Grounds followed Ebbets Field into the crosshairs of the wrecking ball.

The sports history books are loaded with teams leaving various locales and arriving in others. Baseball, in particular, went through a glut of relocation over approximately 20 years. In addition to the Dodgers and Giants, the Braves left Boston in 1953 for Milwaukee, then moved south to Atlanta in 1966. The Athletics left Philadelphia for Kansas City in 1954, then moved westward yet again to Oakland in 1968.

The St. Louis Browns became the Baltimore Orioles in 1954. The Washington Senators became the Minnesota Twins in 1961, replaced a year later with an expansion Washington Senators franchise, which became the Texas Rangers in 1972. The Seattle Pilots left the Pacific Northwest after one unremarkable expansion season, becoming the Milwaukee Brewers in 1970.

It makes for good reading if you are into sports history and like to memorize random facts. But the impact felt by the fans losing their team is hard to appreciate until it happens to one of your teams.

In 1995, we felt it in Cleveland. Most people still remember where they were when Art Modell stood on that stage in Baltimore and announced to a throng of enthusiastic fans and city leaders that he was filling the pro football hole in their hearts by creating one in ours. What followed was an ugly several-year sequence involving the NFL, the governments of Cleveland and Cuyahoga County and tens of thousands of irate fans who will see to it that Arthur B. Modell is unwelcome in Cleveland, Ohio for the remainder of his natural life.

We retained the Browns name and history. We also received a hastily-constructed stadium and expansion team for our trouble, a team virtually guaranteed to not contend for at least five years. Nearly 10 years and two regime changes later, we are only now starting to see evidence of a well-run, winning Browns organization begin to sprout.

Meanwhile, Modell hoisted high the Vince Lombardi Trophy in January 2001. He handed the Baltimore Ravens off to new ownership in 2004, having won the Super Bowl title we still covet.

Ever since the dominoes of despair started falling on that Autumn day in 1995, I've been sensitive to the plight of fans losing their teams, particularly if the fans have supported the team for decades through thick and thin.

Even when the Expos' situation in Montreal was well beyond repair, I thought about the loyal Expos fans, though small in number by the team's 2004 end, who were losing a small part of themselves so the franchise could move on to greener pastures in Washington, D.C. -- which was getting a nearly unheard-of third chance as a baseball town.

You simply don't lose a franchise after 35 years without twisting a knife in someone's back -- thousands of times over. Which is why, when the latest franchise to pogo-stick out of a city made their move official last week, I once again felt that same special brand of contempt that I felt when the Browns moved. That certain type of contempt that can only be reserved for incredibly rich businessmen and politicians who treat the sports team into which you invested so much of your heart and paychecks over the years like a bargaining chip.

The story of the Sonics' exodus to Oklahoma City is, like so many other franchise moves, the story of powerful men attempting to throw each other under the proverbial bus. It's the story of a relationship that had become so contentious between Seattle leaders and team owner Clay Bennett that the sides negotiated a settlement that would allow the Sonics to leave town ahead of the 2010 expiration of the team's lease with the supposedly-outdated Key Arena, just so the sides wouldn't have to deal with each other anymore.

It's the story of former owner Howard Schultz selling his team to Bennett, an Oklahoma businessman, then suing Bennett for control of the team because, of course, Schultz wants to stand up for Seattle in the face of this Oklahoma carpetbagger. It's a move that now seems like a shallow attempt by Schultz -- whose tenure as the Sonics' owner is not remembered fondly by most in Seattle -- to save face with the thousands of now-former Sonics fans who drink his notoriously-overpriced Starbucks coffee.

It's the story of Seattle government refusing to buckle to pressure and finance the building of a new arena, and paying the price for doing what is right --though the city might end up with an extra $75 million out of this whole fiasco as part of the settlement with Bennett and his investors. But if Seattle wants NBA basketball back, it will likely have to spend that amount several times over to build a new arena, sooner or later.

It's the story of legal wrangling and finger-pointing and a lot of hot air. But most of all, it's the story of 41 years of basketball, about Dennis Johnson and Jack Sikma and Lenny Wilkens and the only pro sports title in Seattle's modern history, claimed in 1979.

It's the story Gary Payton's slick handle at the point guard spot, of the pre-Cleveland Shawn Kemp, one of the most astonishing athletic specimens the game had ever seen. It's the story of Nate McMillan, Sam Perkins and all the other players who made a mark on Seattle in four decades of pro basketball.

That is what the fans lost. The ability to make more memories, the ability to watch the latest Sonics phenom, Kevin Durant, blossom into a superstar.

The years will pass, Seattle might land a replacement for the Sonics -- and it might even carry the Sonics name. But it won't be the same, even if they fall in love again.

We in Cleveland, who remember those bitter Sundays on the lakefront in the spartan confines of Cleveland Stadium, turning it into a disorienting vortex of noise for anyone wearing the opposing team's colors, can attest to that.

Life goes on, but you can't ever really, truly go home again.

Retooling or rebuilding?

When Mark Shapiro woke up one morning in 2006 and found the Indians hopelessly adrift and six miles out of first place in the AL Central, he knew he had to make a decision. So he did. He traded away several of the team's expendable veterans for young players.

Eduardo Perez was sent to Seattle for Asdrubal Cabrera. Later, Ben Broussard followed suit in exchange for Shin-Soo Choo. Bob Wickman was pawned off on Atlanta for catching prospect Max Ramirez, who was swapped for Kenny Lofton a year later.

Simple enough, right? When your team is floating through a lost season, you jettison the guys who don't figure into the future, and try to get a little bit of extra depth for your farm system in the process.

It was relatively simple, paint-by-numbers retooling for Shapiro in '06. Ryan Garko was waiting in the wings for his shot to relieve Perez and Broussard at first base, and Fausto Carmona was -- at least we thought at the time -- a budding closer prospect, ready to replace Wickman. There wasn't a whole lot of risk in trading Perez, Broussard or Wickman, for the '06 season or beyond.

Fast forward to 2008. Another lost season, another moment of truth for Shapiro. To trade or not to trade? But this time, the stakes are much higher.

This time, when and if Shapiro pulls the trigger on trades, it will impact the front of the starting rotation and the heart of the already-wounded batting order. This year, the potential trade deadline subtractions will cut deep, and could have impacts ranging far beyond this year.

If Shapiro deals C.C. Sabathia, Casey Blake, Paul Byrd and maybe a bullpen arm (let's just say Rafael Betancourt for argument's sake), that's four-fifths of the opening day rotation gone, counting the injuries to Carmona and Jake Westbrook. Deal Blake, and you're dealing your leading RBI man and best clutch hitter. Deal Betancourt if the right trade arises, and you just pulled the plug on one of your two workhorses from the 2007 bullpen.

Unless those players yield a booty of major league-ready or nearly major league-ready prospects, there is a high probability that the hangover from the deadline purge will continue into 2009. Even if a series of deadline deals does bring one or two players who can step in and contribute in short order, it's probably not going to be enough to save 2009 from the effects of lost production, unless Shapiro bails the team out with some nifty wheeling and dealing over the winter -- though many of Shapiro's previous attempts at making worthwhile offseason moves haven't panned out.

In scuttling the 2008 season by dealing off the likes of Sabathia, Byrd and Blake, Shapiro will likely take 2009 with it, meaning the earliest we could probably hope for an Indians rebound would be 2010. And so many things can happen in two years, it's almost ridiculous to try and predict that far ahead. Ask the people who are trying to accurately weigh LeBron's love of New York against his ties to home.

Of course, all three Tribe players would almost certainly be gone after the season, so what is the harm in dealing them? Well, if Shapiro nabs a few top prospects in the process and the fans are willing to age another two years, minimum, before they see contending baseball again, nothing is wrong with trading them.

But at what point do you draw the line between retooling and rebuilding? At what point does a simple reloading of the the gun chamber turn into a trip to the gunsmith for extensive repairs?

Trading two-fifths of the starting rotation and your leading RBI hitter isn't on par with the demolition job performed by Shapiro in 2001 and 2002, but there is no question it's far more extensive and risky than dealing away assorted flotsam like Perez and Broussard.

The prospect of trading away major parts combined with the fact that Travis Hafner faces an uncertain future, Westbrook faces a yearlong rehabilitation stint, and Carmona and Victor Martinez are both on indefinite timetables to return from injuries, and you could make a case that Shapiro's original rebuilding plan has become derailed. Not beyond repair, but certainly damaged.

Hafner, Westbrook, Carmona and Martinez will all return to fight again with varying degrees of effectiveness. But the team they return to -- depending on how long each is sidelined -- might be vastly different than the team they left. It will be younger and will have a number of new last names stitched onto jersey backs. Grady Sizemore, who will turn 26 at the start of August, could be among the veteran leaders. Martinez, 29, will be a wise Yoda figure compared to some of the greenhorns likely to occupy the roster.

And that roster will have to learn how to win all over again, just like this roster did in 2005 and '07. If that happens, then to me that falls under the definition of a rebuild.

Rebuilding doesn't always mean that a team's front office blew up the plan and started over. Sometimes, it means going forward with the same idea, but a significantly changed roster compiled over several years of non-contention. That's the possible future of the Indians over the next year or two, unless Shapiro has some tricks up his sleeve that we haven't seen yet.

If that's the way it shakes out, the fans will once again be asked by their team to look to the future and see the prize down the road. Perseverance and patience are noble qualities, but once you remember that the Indians' last World Series title came during the Truman Administration, somehow grinding it out, taking a Eric Wedge-approved mentality to being a fan, it's just not that satisfying anymore.

Clarification on Koufos

In the column below, I stated that many Cavs fans in the "anti-Euro-stiff" camp would have been displeased if the Cavs had drafted Kosta Koufos.

Koufos, as was pointed out to me via e-mail, is a native of Canton and very much American. I knew this. Koufos, in reality, is neither European nor a stiff. But many Cavs fans were against the drafting of a player with Koufos' skill set -- which does lend itself to European-style basketball.

The term "Euro-stiff" was meant to convey the fans' reaction to Koufos' game, no matter if he is from the U.S., his heritage country of Greece (where he holds a dual citizenship and plays for the national team) or any other nation.

I should have been clearer on that in the column. Koufos is American. Koufos' game, at least as it's largely perceived, is European.

Stunned silence

The Cavaliers draft party at the Winking Lizard in Lakewood was a cauldron of sound Thursday. A restaurant packed with Cavs fans who showed up for the draft, the drinks, the contests, the scantily-clad Cavalier Girls working the crowd and -- just in case you didn't get enough of it during the season -- the opportunity to have TV announcer Fred McLeod and pregame emcee Ahmaad yell in your ear for three hours.

Tension was building with each passing pick. In the home stretch leading the Cavs pick, potential targets Marreese Speights and Roy Hibbert went off the board, thickening the plot.

When the 19th pick finally arrived, it seemed Danny Ferry would have two logical choices -- the best two players left on ESPN's draft board, Ohio State's Kosta Koufos and Kansas' Darrell Arthur.

I expected a loud juxtaposition of cheers and boos when the Cavs' selection was announced. Fans are typically divided like that when it comes to draft picks. If it was Koufos, the Ohio State fans in the crowd would be thrilled, while the anti-Euro-stiff crowd would be calling for Ferry's immediate dismissal.

The clock hit zero for the Cavs. No sign of NBA Commissioner David Stern to announce the pick. What seemed like a minute passed. Still no Stern. We started whipping ourselves into a frenzy. The Cavs made a trade! They got Michael Redd! Or Elton Brand! Milwaukee or another team is going to be making this pick while Ferry walks away with LeBron's Pippen!

Fans and media love to get hyped on that sort of thing. When Stern approached the podium, we expected something big. What we got was...

"With the 19th pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, the Cleveland Cavaliers select .... [pause for dramatic effect] .... J.J. Hickson, from North Carolina State."

The crowd took in a deep collective breath as the pick was announced, ready to cheer or boo or just explode in general. When Hickson's name was announced, we all ... just exhaled. No cheering, no booing, no passionate response whatsoever. Just stunned silence.

After the silence became a murmur again, one fan, making a quick departure, yelled to the crowd, "Trade Ferry! He sucks!"

After weeks and weeks of hearing about Speights and Koufos and Hibbert and Darrell Arthur and Brandon Rush and Chris Douglas-Roberts, the man Ferry ultimately selected was a guy completely off our radars, and guy who many in the Winking Lizard crowd had probably never heard of.

Even I didn't know that much about him. My initial reaction was much like the others around me: J.J. Who? A 19-year-old freshman from N.C. State? This isn't the type of pick that will convince LeBron to stay, or help the Cavs win a championship in the next two years. If this guy can contribute big minutes prior to 2011, it will be a miracle.

Once the initial wave of emotion passed and I started to get a better read on Hickson, however, the pick made a bit more sense.

Hickson is too inexperienced for me to consider him an ideal use of the 19th pick, especially when Arthur and Koufos were left on the board. But we're not talking about a bloody-side-of-beef raw prospect here. He was an All-ACC honorable mention as a freshman. He led all ACC freshmen in averaging 14.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. You can throw out the point total because there is no way on Earth Hickson is going to average 14.8 points per game in the NBA anytime soon.

But pay attention to the high rebound total. This is why Ferry and Mike Brown were drawn to him. At 6'-9" and more than 240 pounds, Hickson projects as a solid -- maybe even very good -- NBA rebounder and defender. He has the size to not get pushed around in the paint and on the block, and since he was only heading into his sophomore year of college, there is reason to believe he can pack on more muscle as he refines his technique.

Unless he hits a growth spurt to get closer to seven feet, Hickson's ability to play multiple positions in the NBA might be limited. But there are ways around a lack of height. Six-foot-nine guys have excelled at both the power forward and center spots in the pro game, and once team activities begin, Hickson will learn from one of the best undersized bigs of the past 10 years, Ben Wallace, who has made a career out of valuing technique and know-how over size and supreme athleticism.

That's another plus for Hickson. He has more athletic ability than Wallace had in his prime, and the hope on the part of Cavs management is probably that he'll be able to combine his natural talent with what he learns from the Cavs' wise, aging gurus of the frontcourt to become a difference maker on the next level.

Hickson has hops and size, is built to do the dirty-work aspects of the game and is headed into a good situation for a young frontcourt player. That is the thumbs-up portion of drafting him. The thumbs-down portion centers not really on Hickson, but on the LeBron Clock.

Can Hickson contribute in any meaningful way as the Cavs attempt to win an NBA title in the next two years? As I mentioned in my previous column, any pick Ferry made at 19 would likely have to be made with an eye toward 2010 and beyond. That's the type of rough-edged player available at 19.

But with LeBron's possible July 2010 opt-out date drawing ever closer, the players Ferry picks up, be they via trades, free agency or the first round of the draft, have to be able to give the team some kind of production this coming year and next. The need to win is simply too urgent to be running an NBA nursery school at the end of the bench, teaching rookies like Hickson the ABCs of the pro game while they average four points and one rebound in limited action.

Every major move Ferry makes doesn't have to yield a star, but it does have to yield a player who can step in and contribute right away. That's especially true in the case of Hickson, who might be pressed into significant minutes if Ferry ends up dealing the expiring contracts of Anderson Varejao and/or Joe Smith in a trade later this summer.

The Cavs did make a pair of second-round moves to further fortify the frontcourt, acquiring Kansas forward Darnell Jackson from the Heat for a future second-rounder, and teammate Sasha Kaun, whose rights were purchased from the Sonics. Jackson is a power forward, Kaun a center. Kaun is expected to play in Russia next year according the The Plain Dealer.

Given the fact that the Cavs have had decent luck developing second-rounders in the past five years or so, the 6'-8" Jackson -- who averaged more than 11 points and led the national championship Jayhawks with 6.8 rebounds per game -- might become a nice insurance policy if Hickson isn't ready to contribute next season.

But Jackson or Hickson, preferably both, need to contribute in some meaningful way on the court starting next year. If they're stapled to the end of the bench, watching the vast majority of games from the Lance Allred seats, this draft was a bust, at least in the short term.

As much as Ferry and Brown need to look to the future as three of their main frontcourt players inch further into their 30s, there is no way around the fact that LeBron's contract means Ferry's moves will be judged in their impact on the team between now and 2010.

Expect a player, not a miracle

Forty-five wins is a dangerous number in the NBA. And the Cavs sat right on it at the end of the regular season.

When a team lands in the mid-40s for a win total, chances are it didn't get a high enough seed to make a deep run in the playoffs. Chances are it didn't get a decent draft pick either.

The Cavs are following form. A second-round exit from the playoffs (though in a competitive seven-game series against the eventual NBA champion Celtics), and the 19th pick in Thursday's draft.

At the 19th pick, the Cavs might get a talented player, but you can't assume they'll be able to land a heart-of-the-rotation guy who is going to play a major role in a 2009 championship run.

The Cavs need more impact veterans to increase their chances of unseating the Celtics as the NBA champs in 12 months. Barring a home-run trade during the draft proceedings, which area newspapers have been saying is highly unlikely, that's not the type of players the Cavs are going to walk away with Thursday. Danny Ferry is likely going to be left to explore those types of trades once the calendar flips to July and the free-agent signing period begins.

Like it or not, the pick or picks the Cavs make in this year's draft will have to be made with an eye toward 2010 and beyond. At a time when the Cavs' big thinkers have to do whatever they can to give this team the best possible shot to win a title between now and July 2010 -- the dreaded date when LeBron is eligible to opt out of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent -- the type of player that will most likely be available at the 19th pick is one who will need some seasoning.

Certainly, Ferry could look to trade up. In the past month, the overworked rumor mill has already attached the Cavs to the Knicks at No. 6, the Bobcats at No. 9 and the Pacers at No. 11. With Charlotte acquiring the Nuggets' pick at 20 on Wednesday, there is always a possibility that the Bobcats might look to trade their ninth pick. Or they might look to package both those picks and move up even higher.

Long story short, don't expect Ferry to jump through hoops to try and trade up, especially if you're talking about moving up a mere 8 or 10 spots, from the lower-middle portion of the first round to the upper-middle. The price will be too high, and the benefit reaped might be the difference between Kosta Koufos and Marreese Speights, two players who are probably going to need some sanding and polishing to become productive in the NBA.

So assuming the Cavs stay at 19, what can we expect?

As zero-hour drew near on Wednesday evening, the mock draft at nbadraft.net had Koufos, Speights, Roy Hibbert and Brandon Rush off the board by the 19th pick. All four have been listed in the Cavs' slot in previous mock-ups on the site. The Cavs' current pick on the site is Rush's Kansas teammate, Darrell Arthur, a power forward with hops, a developing post game and a need for more muscle.

No mock draft can be treated as gospel, but it's probably best to assume Koufos and Hibbert will be gone. That would make a lot of Cavs fans happy. Koufos and Hibbert will both battle to shake off the "too slow, too soft and not athletic enough" tags in the NBA, and Cavs fans who want less plodding and more fast-breaking on the team are turning up their noses at guys who might struggle to run with LeBron -- or guys who might get pushed around on the block as they try to create a post game.

There is probably a 50-50 chance Speights is available. He's probably the player who would best fit the type of team Ferry and Mike Brown are trying to construct and maintain. He's long, athletic and has the potential to make an impact at both ends of the court. His focus and work ethic are the potential red flags waving over what is otherwise as strong of an NBA prospect as a team would be likely to find at 19.

If Koufos, Hibbert, Speights and Rush are all gone by the time the Cavs go on the clock, the consolation prizes are Arthur, Robin Lopez and Chris Douglas-Roberts. If Arthur isn't there, chances are the Cavs are going to be walking away with some lovely parting gifts, but no actual prize.

Lopez, the twin brother of likely top 10 pick Brook Lopez, is a banger with questionable offensive skills. Douglas-Roberts has a nicely-developing offensive game, but if he were a model, his name would be "Twiggy." He barely cracks 200 pounds on most scouting reports, and there is apparently some concern among scouts that his bodybuilding potential will be limited.

If you read between the lines, that means the best Douglas-Roberts might ever hope to become in the NBA is another Wesley Person. A stick-thin shooter with virtually no penetrating ability, no ability to finish at the hoop and a rumor on defense.

So if I had my way, what would I do?

I'll be honest, my first choice might make some of you choke on your corn flakes, but I'd take Hibbert if he's there. If you're looking for an heir apparent for Z, a guy who might be able to step in and start in Z's place as early as the 2009-10 season, Hibbert is your man.

Hibbert's skill set matches Z's as closely as any big man in the draft. He has a good shooting touch around the basket, can step back and shoot midrange jumpers, and is a solid rebounder to boot. He has questions to answer in the mobility department, and his competitive fire has been criticized by fans and pundits alike, but you can certainly do a lot worse than a Big East-seasoned 7'-2" center who can shoot and rebound.

After than, my next perfect-world option would be to take Koufos and attempt to groom him in the mold of Dirk Nowitzki, a seven-footer who can play facing the basket, shoot and drive. Though admittedly, Koufos will probably not develop the consistency in shooting the NBA three-ball that Nowitzki has.

After Hibbert and Koufos, my ideal picks for the Cavs would be Speights, then Arthur. I'd also keep an eye on Nevada's JaVale McGee and Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan if Speights and Arthur are off the board. Both are raw big men who will need considerable seasoning at the NBA level. But hopefully the cupboard doesn't run that bare for the Cavs by the time they pick.

I would stay away from guards and swingmen. Rush and Douglas-Roberts would be tantalizing options for a team like the Cavs, still searching for that long-sought running mate for LeBron. But neither would fit the bill.

There is a lot to like about the games of Rush and Douglas-Roberts, and even Kansas NCAA Tournament hero Mario Chalmers, who might be available at 19. But the Cavs need veterans at the wing and point positions, not low-first round rookies. There is always the chance the Cavs could find LeBron's Pippen at 19, but not likely. If Rush, Douglas-Roberts and Chalmers develop into core-type players on an NBA roster, it likely won't occur between now and the summer of 2010.

Ferry needs to draft for a player or players who can provide depth now, and might prove to be guys who you can build around later. With that in mind, the message to Ferry and Brown is clear: Think big on Thursday. Think smaller next month.