Thursday, July 21, 2005

What's going wrong

Last year, when the Indians delivered a D-day-like offensive on first place, they reached a high-water mark of 63-55 in early August and came within a game of the first-place Twins. Apparently, they ran out of gas in an extra-inning loss to the Twins, which led to a nine-game losing streak that effectively ended their season.
Last year, we could chalk it up to an inexperienced bunch overwhelmed by their first taste of contention. But this year is proving that last year was not just the product of inexperience.
This year, the Indians got to 46-36 on July 4 and appeared to be a runaway steamroller ready to take over the wild card. The next night, they lost to Mike Maroth and the Tigers, and haven't been the same since.
They have lost 11 of 13 to fall to 48-47. While the brunt of those losses have come against the red-hot Yankees and the unconscious White Sox, the last two have come against the pitiful Royals. Not only that, the offense has possibly been worse than in April and early May. The Indians have been shut out three times in the past six games.
A lot of fans want to pick on their favorite whipping boy when things go bad, be it owner Larry Dolan, general manager Mark Shapiro, manager Eric Wedge, or offensively-challenged players like Aaron Boone and Casey Blake. But there's plenty of blame to go around.
I've isolated three areas I think contribute to the Indians inability to sustain success. Feel free to add to it by commenting below.

1. The lack of veteran leadership.
This might sound like a meaningless catch phrase spewed out by a "Baseball Tonight" commentator on ESPN, but it applies to the Indians. Look at the roster. Almost all the veterans are signed to one-year deals. Clubhouse father figures aren't designated on opening day, they develop over time. Kevin Millwood, Scott Elarton, Bob Wickman, Aaron Boone and Ronnie Belliard are all signed only through the end of the year. Over the span of a couple of months, veterans might not get comfortable enough on their new teams to start speaking up to the younger players, and might not be able to gain the trust of the coaching staff enough to advocate for younger players. Why would someone like Millwood go to the trouble of trying to become a clubhouse pillar when he knows there is a significant chance he won't be here at the end of the month, and a near-certain chance he won't be here next spring?
The result is that when the going gets tough, there is no calming, stabilizing effect on the team. It seems to become every man for himself.
Next year, it could be a whole new cast of veteran characters guys like Jhonny Peralta and Grady Sizemore will be asked to look up to. That's not a recipe for stability.

2. The way the roster is built.
This plays into the point above. Ever since the rebuilding project began in earnest in 2002, Shapiro has had two main ways to stockpile talent: the farm system and the bargain bin.
The farm system is very necessary. It is this team's lifeblood, and should be. Teams with bad farm systems are either bad right now, or will be bad soon when their lack of depth is exposed.
But the farm system is a starting point. It's not the alpha and omega of baseball. Dolan has shown a willingness to spend on farm system development, but little else, since the rebuilding project began.
If the Indians want to seriously contend for a championship, they need to be able to make at least several impact acquisitions to augment their roster, either through trades or free agency. Jody Gerut for Jason Dubois isn't what I'm talking about, either.
Other than drafting or trading into the farm system, Shapiro has pretty much been relegated to sifting through the clearance rack to find players coming back from injuries (Millwood, Boone, Elarton, Scott Sauerbeck and Bob Howry), players looking to rebound from bad seasons (Belliard), and late bloomers (Blake).
There's nothing wrong with trying to find a bargain. All teams try to find the occasional scratch-and-dent deal. To Shaprio's credit, many of his bargain acquisitions have worked out to greater or lesser extents. But if thrift-store shopping is one of the two main ways you have to improve your team, that's a problem.
If Dolan thinks the farm system and bargain hunting alone are going to lift the Indians to legitimate contention, he is mistaken.

3. A tale of two managers.
If I had carte blanche to go anywhere I wanted in Major League Baseball this season, go into clubhouses as I pleased and hang out with teams at their hotels, I know two of my destinations.
I would spend several weeks shadowing the White Sox, learning what manager Ozzie Guillen does that enables his team to be so good. I'd take careful note of how Guillen and the White Sox players respond to losses.
I would then spend several weeks tailing the Indians, and contrast Wedge's managerial style with Guillen's. I'd take careful note of how high the Indians players get after wins, and how low they get after losses.
Something tells me there would be stark differences. Maybe it all wouldn't fall on Wedge's shoulders, but I have to believe there are lessons Guillen has gotten through to his team that Wedge hasn't gotten through to his.

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