“What if?”
It’s the most Cleveland of questions. The Indians liked it
so much they turned it into their advertising slogan for several years. But
this year’s Cavaliers team might have every right to snatch that slogan for themselves.
Perhaps no team in the NBA presently has a bigger factor of
variables than the Cavs. We know the Heat, barring a catastrophic injury to
LeBron James, are going to be the league’s best team. We’re almost certain the
76ers are going to be the league’s worst team, fronting the Andrew Wiggins
lottery derby in 2014.
But the Cavs? They could fall just about anywhere in
between.
What if Kyrie Irving takes the next step to superstardom?
What if injuries limit him to fewer than 65 games again?
What if Andrew Bynum recovers to his 2011-12 form, when he
had the best statistical season of his career? What if his knees can’t keep him
on the floor?
What if Andy Varejao once again flourishes in Mike Brown’s
defense? What if he keeps adding lines to his rapidly-lengthening injury
history?
What if Dion Waiters really is Joe Dumars to Kyrie’s Isiah
Thomas? What if he’s a chronic shot-chucker who consistently sabotages
offensive possessions, and he never gets any better?
What if Tristan Thompson’s right-handed shot doesn’t work?
What if it does? What if Anthony Bennett’s recently-revealed sleep apnea and
asthma caps his conditioning level, relegating him to a part-time role? What if
Jarrett Jack starts to play like a 30-something? What if his veteran leadership
is exactly what the doctor ordered? What if small forward is a black hole of
non-productive suck all season long? What if Alonzo Gee really can become
Cleveland’s version of Bruce Bowen?
And what if Brown’s offensive acumen hasn’t improved since
he last patrolled the sideline for the Cavs in 2010?
If the majority of those questions have positive answers,
the Cavs could win upwards of 50 games and find themselves in the battle for a
middle playoff seed in April. If the majority of those answers are bad news,
the Cavs could be a 30-win team in the lottery hunt for the fourth straight
year.
With the Cavs season set to tip off Wednesday night against
the Brooklyn Nets at The Q, this is a closer look at what we know about the
2013-14 Cavs:
Starters
PG Kyrie Irving:
When the media starts talking about Kyrie needing to make the third-year leap,
it’s the height of praise. LeBron made the third-year leap in 2006 and took the
Cavs to a hard-fought, second round exit against the Pistons in his first
playoff appearance. Kevin Durant made the third-year leap for Oklahoma City in
2010. Chris Paul is a member of the third-year leap club. Now Kyrie has to do
the same.
Kyrie has the goods to put himself on the outskirts of the
MVP conversation in his third year. He’s not unseating LeBron and Durant just
yet, but he could make his presence felt. He has arguably the best handle in
the league, a reliable outside shot and a knack for making incredible finishes
in traffic. And if the preseason is any indication, he’s already paying more
attention to defense.
The one caveat with Kyrie is his body. Brittle bones and
joints have already cost him significant chunks of his lone college season at
Duke, and his first two NBA seasons. The injuries have been of a freak nature –
nothing chronic or degenerative – but missed games are missed games. He has to
stay on the floor for at least 70 games this year if the Cavs are to make
significant progress.
SG Dion Waiters:
His offensive talent is undeniable. Despite being a controversial No. 4 pick in
2012, he finished second among rookies in scoring last year. The problem with
Waiters is harnessing that talent.
Waiters doesn’t have the best basketball instincts. He tends
to hoist up the kind of jump shots that wreck possessions. But he appears
willing to learn, and Brown is willing to teach. If Waiters can master playing
in the flow of an offense, he could blossom into an 18-19 PPG scorer with a
significantly elevated field goal percentage. If not, he’s going to become nary
more than a poor man’s Stephon Marbury.
SF Earl Clark/Alonzo
Gee: The mere fact that there’s a slash in the name doesn’t bode well for
the position. Clark and Gee are interchangeable parts at this point. Both have
some length that can help with perimeter defense – not that either of them are
going to earn a spot on the NBA All-Defensive Team. Neither brings much in the
way of offense.
The popular theory, of course, is that whoever mans this
position is merely a placeholder until the Cavs make a run at LeBron next summer.
But regardless of whether LBJ returns or not, this position will need an
upgrade after this season.
PF Tristan Thompson:
Give TT credit – he’s worked his tail off the past two years. He came into the
league as a raw athlete with little in the way of skill. Now, you could make a
case that he’s the most fundamentally sound of the Cavs’ five starters.
He’ll never pour in 20 points a game. He doesn’t need to. TT
needs to defend, rebound and make the few open shots he gets – in that order.
If his new righty jump shot lets him do that, there are few, if any, real
questions about him. And that’s a great place for a third-year player to be.
C Andrew Bynum:
He’s the guy on this roster who really makes your stomach churn and your heart
pitter-patter. You really, really don’t want to place a lot of hope in the idea
that he’ll recover to be the interior force he was with the Lakers. But if he
does, he could be the ingredient that turns this team into something truly
special.
Bynum, with his knees and head on straight, is the best
post-playing big man in the league. Yeah, you have Pau and Z-Bo and an aging
Tim Duncan – I’ll still take a healthy, motivated Bynum on the block. He’s big,
strong, nimble and adept at shooting with both hands. He’s virtually impossible
to stop if he gets deep position on his defender. He has to be double-teamed in
many cases, which opens up shots for the other four guys.
A healthy Bynum paired with a healthy Kyrie? You can see why
the defense mechanisms go up if you dwell on it. It’s too heartbreaking to
think about it not happening.
Bench
F/C Anderson Varejao:
In lieu of Bynum, Andy is the starting center. And that’s far from ideal, both
because the increased workload of the past few years likely contributed to his
recent string of injuries, and because Andy is at his best in a super-sub role.
Andy needs to be allowed to roam the floor, harassing
players on the wings, drawing charges and being an all-around nuisance to the
other team. As the starting center, he needs to stay close to the basket and
play a much more static role. That’s just not his game, and it showed over the
past few years. Despite Andy’s prodigious rebounding totals, the Cavs interior
defense was quite porous when Andy was out there.
G Jarrett Jack:
He’s going to be expected to be a human glue stick for this young team. He can
bring scoring off the bench, but even more than that, his presence needs to be
felt in the locker room by Irving and Waiters, both of whom need a role model
who is still in uniform.
The primary worry with Jack is that he’s 30, and that’s
right about when players start to trend downward in terms of production. Jack
needs to bring a reliable 9-12 PPG off the bench, and if called upon to start,
he has to still be able to shoulder a starter’s workload.
G/F C.J. Miles:
He’s a gun for hire. He never met a three-pointer he wasn’t willing to take.
That probably makes him worth the minutes, because when he gets hot, he’s a
candidate for a 20-point quarter. But he brings little else other than those
brief spasms of white-hot production. He’s a horrid defender, and that might
cost him a spot in Brown’s rotation, despite his standing as a veteran player.
F Anthony Bennett:
There are a lot of expectations riding on the first-ever Canadian taken with the
No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft, and he’s facing a steep learning curve. Offseason
shoulder surgery robbed him of his conditioning, and the recent revelation that
he suffers from sleep apnea and asthma has raised questions about his ability
to recover his conditioning to the point that he can play 30 to 35 minutes a
night.
As it is, nobody outside the Cavs organization is really
looking for Bennett to win the Rookie of the Year Award, which seems to already
be gravitating toward Orlando’s Victor Oladipo. Unlike Oladipo, playing for a
strip-mined Magic team that can afford to give him all the minutes he needs,
Bennett will be fitted to a much more narrowly-defined role on a deeper Cavs
team that has playoff aspirations. He won’t get the minutes that other rookies
might.
Despite the conditioning issues, Bennett is a talented
scorer. He’s already demonstrated his shooting touch throughout the preseason,
and his fourth-quarter outburst to beat Oladipo’s Magic early the preaseason
offered a tantalizing glimpse of what Bennett could become.
His first NBA season could be a tough one, though.
C Tyler Zeller:
Sometimes, it just doesn’t pay to get out of bed in the morning. Zeller did
everything that was asked of him this summer. He bulked up, adding a
significant amount of muscle to his slender frame. He worked on his game,
preparing to fight for a rotation spot on a roster that contains two veteran
centers ahead of him.
His reward? Injuring his hip in the club’s first scrimmage,
then having to undergo an appendectomy less than a week later. Zeller’s entire
preseason was washed out.
Given the injury histories of Bynum and Varejao, Zeller
still figures to be an important part of this team. But due to his preseason
misfortune, his role is kind of undefined at the moment.
G/F Sergey Karasev:
The Cavs’ other first-round pick from this past spring has a lot worth liking.
He’s less than a week removed from his 20th birthday, but has
already played professionally in Russia. He’s a heady player with a rangy
jumper and underrated passing skills. He comes from strong basketball pedigree.
His dad is Vasily Karasev, who was one of the best players in Russia in the
1990s, and later became a coach who has had a major hand in his son’s
development.
The junior Karasev has said he models his game on that of
Spurs great Manu Ginobili. If he becomes a next-generation Ginobili for the
Cavs, I think we’ll take that without a lot of argument. As for now, he’s
extremely skinny and not used to the physical nature of the NBA game. Let’s see
what happens over the next few years, once he has a chance to fill out his
frame and refine his game.
The Canton shuffle:
Carrick Felix, Matthew Dellavedova and Henry Sims round out the Cavs roster.
All three figure to log some major minutes playing for the NBDL’s Canton Charge
this season, but depending on how hard the injury bug bites the Cavs, we could
see some or all of them in action at The Q.
Felix is a second-round pick this past spring from Arizona
State. The swingman is Brown’s kind of guy – a nose-to-the-grindstone worker
who values defense. If he shows any scoring potential, Brown will find a place
for him with the big-league club.
Dellavedova is an Australian import who played for the
Aussies in the 2012 Olympics. The point guard is an undrafted product of St.
Mary’s College in California. He doesn’t possess much athleticism, but comes
with the reputation of a high basketball IQ and providing great court
leadership, with enough of a jump shot to get by. His lack of athleticism,
however, figures to be a major hindrance at the defensive end, where he’s
already shown that he has trouble staying in front of other NBA point guards.
He’ll have to compensate somehow, if he wants to carve out an NBA career.
Sims was the last man standing in the battle for the 15th
roster spot. The center is an undrafted product of Georgetown who looked solid
during the preaseason. The best thing you can probably say about Sims as a
long-term NBA prospect is that he’s willing to do the dirty work of defense,
rebounding and dishing out fouls.
Coaching: Mike
Brown returns to the Cavs sideline for the first time since LeBron quit and/or
choked his way out of the 2010 playoffs, and subsequently out of Cleveland. In
the interim, Brown had a forgettable year and five games as coach of the
Lakers, where he struggled to manage Kobe Bryant and the Lakers’ arsenal of
mercurial talent.
Brown’s Lakers tenure wasn’t a success by any macro-level
measurement, but he did have a positive impact on Bynum, pushing all the right
buttons and enabling the often difficult-to-manage center to compile his best
statistical season. Brown enthusiastically endorsed a Bynum signing to GM Chris
Grant over the summer.
Bynum is the type of project Brown loves – a young player
who tends to thrive when given a high degree of structure and discipline. The
same can be said for the remainder of the Cavs roster.
Brown is, at his heart, a teacher. He’s at his best when
molding wet clay. And the Cavs will provide him tons of wet clay this season.
Defense does win championships. The best teams in the league
are almost always the best defensive teams in the league. For the past few
years, the Cavs have been in desperate need of the type of structure and
defensive fundamentals that Brown will provide.
But Brown also comes with the deserved rap of enabling poor
offensive execution. He tends to let bad habits develop at that end of the
floor, failing to eradicate them at the root the way he would at the defensive
end.
The object of the game is still to put the ball in the hoop,
and if Browns’ second Cavs tenure is to be longer and more successful than his
first, he has to cultivate this team’s offense the way he does its defense.
To that end, he has compiled an intriguing coaching staff
that includes NBA coaching stalwart Bernie Bickerstaff – Brown’s first mentor
in the NBA – and Igor Kokoskov, a well-traveled assistant coach who will serve,
in effect, as the team’s offensive coordinator.
Training: The
Cavs underwent another sea change this summer by rebuilding their entire
training staff. Gone is longtime trainer Max Benton, replaced by the
newly-named “Cavs Performance Team.” The performance team will be led by Alex
Moore, the former strength and conditioning coach for the U.S. Ski Team.
Results have yet to bear out the wisdom of the decision, but
it’s an attempt by the Cavs to address the fact that they have a number of key
players with long injury histories by building a training department much
closer to what you might see in Europe or Australia. The Aussies are often
credited as world leaders in sports training, rehabilitation and injury
prevention.
The creation of the performance team is the result of months
of research by the Cavs brain trust, comparing the common practices of American
sports training with those in other countries. What Grant and his staff
concluded from the research is that American sports training methods lag behind
the rest of the developed world. Hence, the development of the new model.
If it keeps Irving, Bynum and Varejao on the floor and
producing, it’s a great move. We’ll know a lot more by midseason.