31-21

The Cavaliers have reached their high-water mark from last year following last night's double-overtime win over the Celtics. After topping out at 31-21 last season, the Cavs went 11-19 over their final 30 games to finish 42-40, getting edged out by the Nets for the East's final playoff spot on the last day of the season.
Thirty games remain after the all-star break, most or all without second-leading scorer Larry Hughes. Below, I give some reasons to be upbeat about the Cavs' chances to reach the playoffs and maybe still be playing in May, along with some reasons to be wary.

The good stuff

1. The roster is decidedly deeper than last year
At times last year, if LeBron James wasn't getting it done, no one was. The bench was dead weight, and Ira Newble was the only player with a clue on defense.
This year, the Cavs are getting offensive and defensive contributions from other places on the roster. Donyell Marshall plays hard at both ends of the floor, as does Drew Gooden. LeBron's defense is improving, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas looks like more than a cigar-store Indian on defense. The reture of Anderson Varejao has injected energy.
Damon Jones has rebounded from a sluggish first three months of the season to begin shooting the ball well the past several weeks. Sasha Pavlovic, a bit player most of the year, has stepped up his play since Hughes went down. Now if he can just get his fouls under control.

2. Mike Brown has created stability
No factor contributed to the Cavs' collapse last year more than locker room instability. Coach Paul Silas and mercurial guard Jeff McInnis seemed more interested in feuding with each other than trying to win games. Silas, already notorious for unpredictable substitution patterns, benched McInnis for a game in Toronto, allowing James to score 56 points and still lose, a move that got Silas fired.
This year, Mike Brown has created a team environment that places hefty emphasis on defense and teaching. The environment around the team appears far more positive and resilient (I shudder to think what would have happened to last year's team had they lost a player like Hughes). This year's Cavs are above .500 since Hughes went down.
Brown is a rookie head coach and still is learning himself. He sometimes puts his offense on too short a leash and still hasn't found a way to avoid the mental lapses that caused home losses to teams like the Hawks and Warriors. But Brown is a good teacher, and the Cavs are a healthier team because of it.

3. LeBron is better than ever
A 43-point outburst against Boston put LeBron's season scoring average at 31.2 per game, third in the league. He has four triple-doubles, and could average 30/7/7 this year, which is brain-melting.
If LeBron knows his team is working with him, the sky is the limit. He could singlehandedly carry the Cavs into playoffs, so long as he doesn't think he has to singlehandedly carry the team. Does that make sense?

4. The tough parts of the schedule are basically over
The Cavs got their West Coast trips out of the way before the end of January. In fact, Dallas and New Orleans are the only two Western Conference roadies left. Arguably the toughest part of the reamaining schedule is a home-and-home with Detroit at the end of the month.

The bad stuff

1. Hughes' injuries
Losing Hughes likely drops the Cavs out of the running for a 50-win season, a mark that could have put some serious separtion between Cleveland and the rest of the field for the fourth playoff spot. Instead, it looks like it could be a dogfight with Indiana, Washington and Milwaukee for homecourt advantage.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about Hughes' long-term future in Cleveland. When healthy, he is one of the top second-tier players in the league. But he hasn't played a full season since 1999-2000. Hughes can't be LeBron's top lieutenant sitting on the bench in a suit and tie. He needs to stay healthy for the Cavs to blossom into a championship contender. But more often than not, keeping Hughes healthy seems like bucking the odds.

2. Donyell Marshall's advancing age
No player is more important to the Cavs' bench than Marshall. And no player on the Cavs' bench is older than Marshall, 32.
Much like with fellow 30-something Eric Snow, there is a strong possibility that Marshall will grow old on the Cavs' watch. Already, his three-point field goal percentage is at a career-low, a troubling sign of what might be on the horizon.
Marshall's legs, which have withstood the pounding of an 11-year NBA career, are already deteriorating to the point that he no longer makes an ideal starter.
If Marshall's ability to drive and defend begin sliding along with his shot, the Cavs are going to be left with a used-up spare part taking up valuable salary cap space. Marshall is signed for three more years.

3. Lousy draft picks
This is where GM Danny Ferry needs a big-time upgrade over the previous regime. The only way the Cavs will routinely be able to withstand the injuries and adversity that come with every NBA season is to make good draft picks.
As it stands, the busts of former GM Jim Paxson have put this team behind the 8-ball. Sadly, it looks like Luke Jackson can be thrown onto the Cleveland compost heap along with Trajan Langdon, Chris Mihm, DeSagana Diop and Dajuan Wagner.
Much is riding on Ferry's first pick as a GM. He had no picks last year. The Cavs will likely have a 20-something draft pick in June, followed by no first-rounder in 2007.
One first-rounder in three years, thanks to the ill-fated Jiri Welsch trade last spring. Ferry must (MUST) hit on this summer's pick, and find a player who can help this team in his rookie year. No project players. No players who can run fast and jump high but have no idea how to play basketball. No seven-foot-tall fatasses who have no idea how to play.
I know Ferry wants to follow the San Antonio model, but here, he should study the ways of Chicago GM John Paxson, whose team has made one more playoff appearance than the Cavaliers since 1999. Draft a smart, well-rounded, accomplished player out of a big-name, routinely-successful college program. Make sure he's a junior or senior.