I'm not trying to get ahead of myself. I don't think I need to. Other Cleveland fans are doing it for me.
Tonight's 102-94 Cavaliers loss to the Wizards puts the Cavs in the exact same position they were in after 55 games a year ago with a 32-23 record. A year ago, they were two games into a six-game losing streak that signaled the beginning of the end.
Sure, we all believe this Cavs team is more talented, better coached and overall more stable than the bunch that careened to a 42-40 record and no playoffs last spring. But how confident are we? More importantly, how confident is the team?
Fans have already begun calling up radio talk shows airing out their fears about another spring collapse. Coming from the mouths of talk-show hosts and callers, it seems like quasi-irrational what-iffing.
Far more important is what is going on in the minds of LeBron James and his teammates. And based on the fourth quarter they played against Washington tonight, I have to think last spring's collapse is swimming around in the backs of their minds somewhere. Or, I fear, much closer to the surface.
I saw a Cavs team that played tight with the game on the line, resulting in a fourth-quarter brain cramp that cost them a winnable game. They committed seven turnovers, played zero perimeter defense and missed a boatload of free throws. At one point, LeBron missed four straight from the line.
LeBron was also picked clean on a steal by Gilbert Arenas, and Donyell Marshall failed to secure a steal of his own, giving the ball right back on a ill-advised attempt to push it up the floor.
The Cavs also air-mailed a game away two nights ago in Philadelphia with a bad fourth quarter.
It's not classified information: fourth quarters almost always decide games in the NBA. If you rise to the occassion, as the Cavs have done numerous times this year, you will win a lot of games. If you choke in the fourth quarter, you will lose a lot of games.
It's not to say a loss like tonight necessarily dooms the Cavs to a playoff-killing collapse yet again, but last season's collapse might be a ghost they have to bust before arriving in the postseason for the first time since 1998.
When you are a fourth-seed team, other teams aren't going to take you out of the playoff race. Only you can do that. Unfortunately, last season's failure might be an unseen sixth man the Cavs have to battle every time they take the court from now until they finally clinch a playoff berth.
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