Monday, March 27, 2006

MLB preview: AL Central

One week left until Japan's national pastime takes the field. With any luck, this year's champion won't have "Sox" anywhere in their name.
But just in case, I want to petition Major League Baseball to change the Indians' name to "Indian Sox."
(Hey, wait. The Indians were purportedly named after Penobscot Indian Louis Sockalexis, who played for the old Cleveland Spiders in the 1890s. Does that count? In a "my great-great-grandfather once made eye contact with Abraham Lincoln's secretary's horse doctor" kind of way?)

Teams listed in projected order of finish

1. Chicago White Sox
The White Sox give the national media wet dreams. Just the thought of adding Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez to the roster of the defending world champs ..... ohhhhh, yeah baby .... that's the stuff.......
Chicago has one factor that can keep them at the top of the division and quite possibly the American League for a second straight year: starting pitching. No other team in baseball approaches the depth of the White Sox's starting rotation. But we have to wonder what is so fantastic about Vazquez, who has bounced around like a ping-pong ball from Montreal to the Yankees to Arizona and now Chicago.
Sure, Thome upgrades the White Sox's power in the middle of the order. But this was a team that hit .260 for the season and didn't rely on power. Manufacturing just enough runs to win was a White Sox specialty last year, reference their aberrational record in one-run games. Thome looks like a stud pickup, but manager Ozzie Guillen might not yet realize how tempting it will be to ice the aggressive baserunning and wait for Thome to put one over the wall.

2. Cleveland Indians
General Manager Mark Shapiro and owner Larry Dolan went to Budget Rent-A-Car four years ago and have managed to walk out with something that resembles a certified pre-owned Lexus.
They're travelling in style after a 93-win season a year ago. Just don't get close enough to notice the paint chips in the front bumper.
The Indians have done a good job of masking their deficiencies with a top-notch farm system and low-cost free agent pickups that have worked like a charm. We have yet to see if it will all come together at some point.
The Indians are solid at everything, excellent at nothing. The off-season free agent acquisitions of pitchers Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson, and the re-signing of closer Bob Wickman, should perpetuate that.
The offense rebounded from a slow start to lead the league in runs scored. Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore are studs. Jhonny Peralta looks like a winner. But it could be a yearly battle to fill in the holes around them.
Casey Blake is still in the starting lineup, I might add.
Fernando Cabrera is the front end of a massive youth movement that could re-shape the bullpen by next year. This year, the Indians will have to nurse good seasons out of creaky veterans like Wickman, Guillermo Mota and Scott Sauerbeck.
As is becoming a yearly tradition, the Indians are a March mystery. They could win 75 games or they could win 95. The smart bet is somewhere in-between.

3. Minnesota Twins
Hello, three-time division champs, still down here and registering a pulse.
The Twins faded into the background last year after a nice run of success atop a division of rebuilding teams. But if you cast them into the recycle bin in March, it's your funeral.
The Twins are still a threat to rise up and make the playoffs. Last year, they were the victims of lousy seasons by Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, who are far more talented than they showed. Torii Hunter, the best center fielder in baseball when the Twins were winning, lost much of the season to injury.
Off-season acquisitions Luis Castillo and Rondell White will give the offense a much-needed shot. Johan Santana is still the best starting pitcher in baseball, Brad Radke's arm is dwindling but still effective, and Joe Nathan is a scary closer to face.
So go on. Take the Twins lightly. They dare you.

4. Detroit Tigers
Sorry if this deviates from Dayn Perry's fantasies. We all love Tigers manager and Ohio native Jim Leyland, even if he did lead the Marlins to a World Series victory over Cleveland. He's a very good manager, and looks like everybody's grandpa.
But the fact remains that the Tigers have a long way to go to be a playoff-caliber team. They have some fine pitching prospects like Justin Verlander, and Mike Maroth is a rotation rock. But the offense lost Rondell White this winter, and the rest of the lineup is anchored by quickly-aging stars Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez.
In a division where they will be facing the talented pitching staffs of the White Sox, Indians and Twins 19 times each per year, that is probably too much to overcome over the span of 162 games.
Even Leyland doesn't have a magic wand to wave.

5. Kansas City Royals
When your team "scores" Scott Elarton and Doug Mientkiewicz in free agency, your team is just plain bad.
The Royals have a good young player here and there, like pitcher Zack Greinke, who looks like he's 15 and possesses electric stuff. But there are no indications the endless parade of summerlong tryout camps that are Kansas City's seasons will end this year.
Mike Sweeney is the Ernie Banks of his generation. He keeps plugging away and producing for an awful organization. That kind of loyalty is to be commended. The Royals will miss him when he is finally gone.

Up next: the AL East

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