It's only March 7, but I want to talk baseball, gosh darn it. So I am going to look ahead to October and handicap what I think are the top seven teams that have a chance to reach the 2006 World Series. These are just my picks, don't bet money on them.
1. Chicago White Sox
I still think this team caught lightning in a bottle to an extent last year. They won two-thirds of their one-run games, stayed almost completely healthy, and virtually every single one of GM Ken Williams' moves worked like a charm. That's not likely to repeat itself.
Having said that, the White Sox are still a very formidable team with quite possibly the best starting rotation in baseball. Manager Ozzie Guillen demands the White Sox excel at small ball, and they generally respond, playing base-to-base with the best of them.
DH Jim Thome could be the best acquisition made this off-season if he stays healthy. If he doesn't, he's an unstable building block for an offense that was statistically mediocre last year.
Having been to the top helps this team. They went from green to grizzled playoff veterans in one season.
2. New York Yankees
For the first time in about four years, the discord and bad moves that have ruled the Yankees seems to be subsiding. We know that Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter can co-exist peacefully. Jason Giambi finally worked his way back to health last season, Hideki Matsui was re-signed, and Johnny Damon gives the Yankees their first legit leadoff hitter since Chuck Knoblauch.
The biggest question mark is the entire pitching staff sans Mariano Rivera. Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson are aging staff aces. Behind them are young upstarts Aaron Small and Chien Ming-Wang, unproven over an entire season.
Kyle Farnsworth will be Rivera's primary setup man heading into the season. Joe Torre can use him at his own risk.
The Yankees' offense is so good, however, that they might only need lukewarm pitching to reach the Series.
3. New York Mets
Sooner or later, all this spending is going to yield something good. Either that, or a dysfunctional clubhouse.
The Mets have made sure their roster is a who's who of National League players. This off-season alone, they've added Billy Wagner and Carlos Delgado to go with last year's additions, Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran.
Beltran flopped in his first year as a Met. But he's still relatively young. Depth is the primary concern with the Mets, but they are loaded with guys who can carry a team.
4. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards seem to be the reliable old standby. And they have the pitching to back it up. This year, the rotation is anchored by Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder and Jeff Suppan.
The St. Louis offense isn't deep, but peaks are very high, namely Albert Pujols. Jim Edmonds isn't young anymore, but seems to ratchet his play late in the season. This is a battle-tested team, coming off an NL pennant in 2004 and an NLCS appearance last year.
5. Boston Red Sox
Never before has a team gone through so many offseason gyrations to bascially stand pat. GM Theo Epstein was gone, as far away as New York, then came back. Manny Ramirez was headed everywhere from Seattle to Anaheim to Cleveland, but enters camp for his sixth season in Boston. Johnny Damon is gone, replaced by a reasonably similar player in Coco Crisp.
The biggest offseason move was the acquisition of Josh Beckett from the Marlins. Beckett is a former World Series MVP. If he truly is one of those guys that thrives on October pressure, he will be a dangerous weapon for the Red Sox.
6. Atlanta Braves
Another reliable standby, despite the fact that Atlanta hasn't advanced to the Series since 1999. Chipper Jones and Andruw Jones anchor the offense. Edgar Renteria is back in his National League comfort zone, and should rebound from a disappointing 2005 in Boston.
The pitching staff, always the concrete foundation of the Braves' ridiculous run of 15 straight division titles, is actually the area in a state of transition. Tim Hudson is the leader, John Smoltz is the old, wise owl. New pitching coach Roger McDowell will rely heavily on them to pilot a staff that is getting considerably younger.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
The moves made this winter might have finally been enough to wrestle the Blue Jays free of terminal mediocrity. The Jays always had one or two good players liek Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay, but could never put it all together. This winter, Toronto ownership spent like Daddy Warbucks and brought in A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan and Troy Glaus.
Burnett and Ryan are the staff ace and closer, respectively. Neither are proven over the long haul. Ryan has never saved 40 games in a season, yet is now the richest reliever in baseball. Glaus is a rare third baseman who can truly mash, but he will have to show he can stay healthy.
Right now, the Jays are an impressive collection of raw materials. Let's see what becomes of them over the next six months.
Best of the rest:
8. Los Angeles Angels
9. Houston Astros
10. Cleveland Indians
11. Oakland Athletics
12. Minnesota Twins
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