Maybe this is the year that Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay rise up and wrestle this division away from New York and Boston. Maybe this year won't go according to script. Maybe this year the Yankees and Red Sox will become irrelevant....
Nah. We know better.
Teams listed in projected order of finish.
1. New York Yankees
This team truly is the Bronx Bombers. If they are going to win yet another AL East title, they are going to mash their way there. And they can do it.
Johnny Damon gives the Yankees their first real leadoff hitter since Chuck Knoblauch. Damon's presence should allow Derek Jeter and the heart of the order to slide back into their comfort zones. Alex Rodriguez and a resurgent Jason Giambi anchor the heart of the order, which extends to about the seventh spot with Gary Sheffield, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada.
The starting pitching is old at the front, with Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina, but young at the back with Chien Ming-Wang and Aarom Small. The closer, Mariano Rivera, is still the standard-bearer in baseball.
The only ball-and-chain the Yankees might be dragging around all season is a questionable set-up corps. When Kyle Farnsworth is you main man to get to Rivera, you are rolling the dice like a Vegas craps addict.
2. Boston Red Sox
Boston found a respectable replacement for Damon in Coco Crisp, who is frequently mentioned by analysts as a candidate to have a breakout season.
Like the Yankees, the Red Sox have some anchor-type pitching, most notably the off-season acquisition of Josh Beckett from the Marlins. But like the Yankees, this team is mostly about offense. Manny Ramirez weathered another offseason of trade rumors and returns to form half of baseball's best one-two hitting punch with David Ortiz. The trouble is, the remainder of the order is populated with too many less-than-scary hitters like Trot Nixon, and that will probably be the difference in the division.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
Like so many Canadians, the Blue Jays showed they are at their best when the snow is flying. This winter, Toronto added starting pitcher A.J. Burnett, closer B.J. Ryan and third baseman Troy Glaus.
But like with so many Canadians, once the ice thaws, the luster is lost.
While Burnett and Ryan are nice pickups, they aren't going to vault this team to contender status. Ryan, now baseball's highest-paid reliver, has never had a 40-save season. And he's closing in on 30 years of age. Burnett is not a staff ace, yet got an ace-type contract.
Glaus will probably be the best of the Jays' acqusitions if he stays healthy. But he's not going to carry a mediocre offense that got sluggish production from Vernon Wells last year.
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays
It won't happen this year, but one day, we are going to wake up and notice the Devil Rays hanging around in the closing weeks of the season.
The Rays are quietly building an impressive cache of young talent highlighted by pitcher Scott Kazmir and prospect Delmon Young. With the return of Rocco Baldelli to health this year, the Rays will get a key piece of the heart of their order back.
Carl Crawford and Joey Gathright provide tremendous speed at the top of the order, but have to work on the finer points of contact hitting.
The bullpen and back end of the starting rotation still need some ironing out, but for the first time, the Rays are closer to not sucking than to sucking.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Leo Mazzone's god-like status as a pitching coach will be seriously challenged once he comes to the quick, painful realization that Rodrigo Lopez is not Greg Maddux circa 1995.
This is a team of loose, mismatched parts. Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada give the offense some oomph, but not nearly enough.
The Orioles stagnated this winter. They stagnated at a time when the Washington Nationals are encroaching on their market, at a time when Sammy Sosa called it quits. One has to wonder just what is going on upstairs in Baltimore.
Up next: the AL West
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